Michigan vs Ohio State Odds & Picks Week 14: Buckeyes To Regain Dominance In Rivalry

Fresh off a dominant 38-15 win over Indiana on Saturday, Ohio State closes the regular season with a home game against Michigan. The Wolverines have gotten the better of their rival in three straight years, but as 20.5-point underdogs on Saturday, the market indicates a blowout win for the Buckeyes. Where does the advantage lie in this Big Ten rivalry game? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

Michigan vs Ohio State Odds Week 14  

Michigan vs Ohio State, Nov. 30, 12:00 pm ET

Odds as of Nov. 28 at FanDuel

Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks - Week 14

Ohio State -20.5 (-104) FanDuel

After winning the national championship last year, the Michigan Wolverines have had a disappointing season. They enter this game with a 6-5 record primarily due to an offense that ranks 120th in EPA/play. The Wolverines had their best offensive showing of the season last week, posting a 91st-percentile offensive success rate in a 50-point outing against Northwestern.

Finding consistency in the passing game has remained a massive challenge for the Wolverines. None of the three quarterbacks to start a game for the Wolverines have provided upside. While Davis Warren has been the best option lately, he’s facing an uphill battle to produce, especially if tight end Colston Loveland cannot play this week.

Regardless, it’s challenging to envision Michigan repeating that offensive explosion against an elite Ohio State defense. With incredible talent at all three levels, Jim Knowles’ unit ranks fourth in EPA/play allowed this season. Safety Lathan Ramson has been particularly dominant this year, pacing all Power Five safeties in PFF’s grading and steadily rising in the NFL Draft community.

Ohio State’s offense has also been excellent this year, especially thanks to the transfer addition of quarterback Will Howard. The Buckeyes rank third in passing EPA/play this year, and Howard has elite weapons to stretch the Wolverines vertically with wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Michigan ranks just 80th in PFF’s coverage grades this year, and it’s expected to be without superstar cornerback Will Johnson again this week as he deals with a toe injury.

The Buckeyes are seeking triple revenge on Saturday, and they have every ounce of incentive to run up the score late, even if they are controlling the game. With Michigan likely trailing in an uncomfortable passing game script against an excellent Ohio State defense, the Buckeyes will have plenty of possessions to cover the spread in this game.

Will Colston Loveland and Will Johnson Play in this Game?

While Michigan is at a roster disadvantage even without any health concerns, it could be without two of its best players on Saturday. Tight end Colston Loveland leads the team with 56 catches for 582 yards and five touchdowns, but his status must be monitored after he left the Northwestern game with an undisclosed injury. Superstar cornerback Will Johnson has also been sidelined since Week 8 without a timetable for return, and he appears unlikely to play this week.

Michigan vs Ohio State Prop Pick

Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+125) BetMGM

If you’re looking for a touchdown prop in this game, Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka looks like a strong option at plus money. Egbuka has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and has scored nine touchdowns this season. Egbuka has played 79.6% of his snaps out of the slot this season, matching him up with Michigan slot corner Zeke Berry, who has been prone to giving up big plays. Berry has given up five touchdowns in coverage this season, per PFF, more than any other Michigan player.

Michigan vs Ohio State Betting Trends