North Carolina vs Minnesota Odds & Picks Week 1: Bet The OVER

Quarterback Drake Maye is now with the New England Patriots, and it’s a new world for the North Carolina Tar Heels. That’s evident in the spread for UNC’s Thursday night opener, where the visitors from Chapel Hill are a 2.5-point underdog to a Minnesota team that finished with a losing record last season.

No question, that OVER bet will be tempting given that North Carolina allowed opponents an average of more than 404 yards and 27 points last season. New Tar Heels defensive coordinator Geoff Collins steps in for the fired Gene Chizik, one of several changes on both teams—former LSU and Texas A&M quarterback Max Johnson is now at UNC and New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer takes over behind center at Minnesota, which also upgraded with newcomers from Georgia and LSU.

North Carolina vs Minnesota Odds

Matchup Page: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Minnesota Golden Gophers, 8 pm ET

Odds as of August 27

North Carolina vs Minnesota Picks - Week 1

Both teams looked in need of an overhaul late last season—the Gophers dropped four straight before eking by Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl, and the Tar Heels cratered to a 2-5 finish after a 6-0 start. Against the spread, it's even worse; UNC failed to cover six of its last seven, and Minnesota’s overall 4-9 cover mark (which included a 31-13 loss in Chapel Hill an as 8-point underdog) tied for ninth-worst in the nation overall.

None of that exactly inspires confidence as the teams prepare to meet in Minneapolis. And yet the presence of Brosmer—who led FCS with 3,459 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns, and became the Gophers’ starter the instant he arrived on campus in January—perhaps gives a slight edge to Minnesota, which also boasts a solid stable of running backs behind starter Darius Taylor. The receiving corps is young but promising, especially with Georgia transfer Tyler Williams in the fold.

Johnson, meanwhile, was largely a backup at LSU, and he lost the starting QB job to Conner Weigman last season at Texas A&M. Entering Week 1, UNC head coach Mack Brown still had not named a starter between Johnson, redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell and Arkansas transfer Jacolby Criswell. Add in UNC’s chronic deficiencies on defense—they’ve allowed opponents at least 400 yards per game for four straight seasons now—and the natural play here is the Golden Gophers outright at home.

North Carolina Vs Minnesota Week 1 Pick: Minnesota ML (+105)

For all the points it gave up past season, North Carolina remained break-even against the total while Minnesota went OVER the number in three of its last five games. The Tar Heels should still score points, the Golden Gophers’ offense should be vastly improved with Brosmer behind center, and that UNC defense still faces question marks—which leads us to go OVER the total of 50.5 for Thursday night.

North Carolina vs Minnesota Week 1 Pick: OVER 50.5 (-110)

North Carolina vs minnesota news

The Tar Heels and Gophers entered game week in the midst of a standoff over which team would release a depth chart—and the end result, according to reports, will be neither of them. That likely leaves UNC’s quarterback situation a mystery until kickoff, although Brown hasn’t ruled out playing two QBs, according to the Raleigh News and Observer.

North Carolina vs Minnesota Prop Pick: Minnesota -1.5 First Half 

Talk about an oddity: North Carolina under Brown has been historically terrible in road night games, amassing a 3-11 outright record in those contests since 2019. Combine that with the Tar Heels breaking in a new quarterback (whoever it is) away from home, and it’s easy to like the Gophers to cover a slim first-half spread.

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