Notre Dame vs Penn State College Football Playoff Odds and Picks: Take The Irish In Orange Bowl

It's official -- Notre Dame and Penn State will meet in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Opening odds for the Orange Bowl at FanDuel like the Irish as cautious 1.5-point favorites at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

After a decisive win over Kirby Smart's 'Dawgs, the Irish clash with a fellow top nationally ranked defense in the Nittany Lions, who have held opponents to two scores or fewer in the CFP. 

Notre Dame vs Penn state Odds

Matchup Page: Notre Dame vs Penn State, Jan. 9, 7:30 pm ET

Odds as of January 3 from FanDuel

Notre Dame vs Penn state Picks – CFP Orange bowl

I'm going to be the one to say it... undeniably, Penn State has played through an easier route to the semifinals than Notre Dame. Sure, a case could've been made about Ashton Jeanty leading his Broncos -- but clearly James Franklin's defense had no issues limiting the Heisman Trophy runner-up. Meanwhile, the Irish kicked off the postseason with an inner-state meeting and then had to eliminate the Georgia dynasty. 

Keep in mind, Indiana's rush defense ranked second in the country and still couldn't restrict the power of Jeremiyah Love and company. Even in the few moments the Hoosiers interrupted the ground attack, Leonard's duality shined as the senior tossed over 200 yards in the air. Then, in the quarterfinals, the quarterbacks arm was held to 90 yards. No problem for Leonard, who rushed 80 yards vs the Bulldogs. Long story short, Riley Leonard is getting it done. 

Notre Dame will be the second-best passing defense (167.4 YPG) Drew Allar faces this year. When the junior met Ohio State in Week 10, he recorded a dull 146 yards and was picked off. That matchup cashed the UNDER at 47-points. 

The Irish have covered 10-straight spreads, all of which featured them as the favorites. I like the balance of Notre Dame's bench -- so much so I'm taking them at -1.5 and rolling with the UNDER. 

Notre Dame vs Penn State Pick: Notre Dame -1.5 (-110), UNDER 46.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Friday, January 3 at 11:30 am ET

Notre Dame vs Penn state News

We're all wondering the status of Jeremiyah Love, the heart-and-soul of Marcus Freeman's offense and ground attack. The sophomore's six carries and 19 yards against Georgia, putting an end to his season-long touchdown streak, clearly doesn't reflect his season. It was already noted Love was dealing with flu-like symptoms ahead of the Sugar Bowl kick-off. 

Then, the running back suffered a knee injury that kept him off the field for a chunk of the game. Early whispers have spread that Love intends to play in the Orange Bowl, suggesting a minor tweak to his knee. But, there's always concern about his healing process with the semifinal meeting less than a week away. 

Jeremiyah Love with a heavy knee brace on trying to stay warm.

We NEED him ☘️ pic.twitter.com/hnTPAmdUu3

— Re2pect Sports (@Re2pectsport) January 2, 2025

Notre Dame vs Penn state Prop Bet: Riley Leonard O 0.5 Passing TDs

Leonard is averaging 1.7 passing touchdowns per game and I think that trend will continue. Sure, the senior is a mobile quarterback with 15 rushing touchdowns himself. But, Penn State's defense stuffed Ashton Jeanty last time out and is allowing just 101 rushing yards per game (ranked eighth). 

In order to escape Georgia, we saw Leonard have to think outside of the box by sprinkling the ball to his recievers -- including an endzone toss to Beaux Collins. James Franklin will be expecting a run in the redzone, so expect Leonard to let it fly in the air to capitalize on those scoring opportunities. 

Notre Dame vs Penn state Betting Trends