Expect Another Tight Battle In Red River Rivalry

Although Oklahoma (5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS) remains undefeated, four of its five wins have come by a single possession. That trend should continue this week when the Sooners face Texas (4-1, 4-1). Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Oklahoma had been favored by at least a touchdown in eight straight meetings before last year’s Red River rivalry clash saw the Sooners as just a field-goal favorite. That could be where this line closes as well.

Oklahoma News & Notes

The Sooners continue to have trouble putting opponents away, edging Kansas State 37-31 last week for their fourth win this season by less than a touchdown. For once, the defense was Oklahoma’s biggest issue, allowing more points than it had in its previous three games combined.

The Sooners also shot themselves in the foot by allowing K-State to convert three times on fourth down, fumbling twice, allowing a kick return touchdown and committing 10 penalties for 85 yards.

Fortunately, Oklahoma’s offense was just efficient enough to make up for all of those mistakes. Quarterback Spencer Rattler produced his best game of the season, throwing for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns while running back Kennedy Brooks added 91 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Sooners scored on each of their six red-zone trips en route to their 13th consecutive SU victory.

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Texas News & Notes

Casey Thompson is 3-0 SU since taking over as Longhorns quarterback, although he hardly deserved all the credit for last week’s 32-27 win at TCU. Thompson completed just 12 of 22 pass attempts for 142 yards, a touchdown and an interception as Texas’ offense sputtered a bit after averaging 64 points in his first two starts. In fact, Texas had scored touchdowns on 15 of its first 17 drives directed by Thompson, but the Longhorns reached the end zone just three times against the Horned Frogs.

Bijan Robinson carried the Longhorns offense last week with a career-high 216 yards on 35 carries and a pair of rushing touchdowns. Texas’ kicking game also came up big with Cameron Dicker booting four field goals, three of them coming on short fields after TCU turnovers.

Texas could get conservative on offense again as an underdog, a role in which the Longhorns tend to play things tighter to the vest. Texas has gone UNDER the total in 15 of its last 21 games as a dog, with those games seeing an average of 57.4 points scored.

How Oklahoma Will Cover

The good news is that the Sooners don’t need to do much more than win the game to cover this small number. Oklahoma is 13-2 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 games when favored by 7 or less.

How Texas Will Cover

The Longhorns will have to play a much cleaner game than last week’s mistake-filled win at TCU in order to pull off the upset or at least stay inside the number. Their best chance at success should come on the ground with their fifth-ranked running attack.

Computer Pick: Oklahoma -3.5

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