Oklahoma vs Navy Odds & Picks: Armed Forces Bowl

Talk about two teams that lost their way: Oklahoma started 4-1 before cratering to a 2-5 finish, while Navy opened with six straight victories before dropping three of its next five. The Sooners and Midshipmen both look to finish strong in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, where Oklahoma is a 9.5-point favorite.

Not surprising for a brand-name program enduring a difficult season, the Sooners have seen a rash of transfer portal departures—among them Jackson Arnold, who started nine games at quarterback, including the shocking 24-3 upset of Alabama on Nov. 23. That was one of just three covers Oklahoma managed in its last eight games against FBS competition.

Oklahoma vs Navy Odds

Matchup Page: Oklahoma vs Navy, December 27th, 12:00 pm ET

Odds as of December 12 at Fanduel

Oklahoma vs Navy Picks—Armed Forces Bowl

The Midshipmen were unbeaten through their first six games, and had covered in all five of their contests against FBS opponents. Then came a 51-14 obliteration at the hands of Notre Dame, and Navy was never quite the same. The hangover from South Bend was still evident in a stunning 24-10 loss to 13-point loss at underdog Rice the following week, and later the Midshipmen were steamrolled 35-0 by Tulane.

Those issues would seem to justify the 9.5-point line for the Armed Forces Bowl—except for the fact that Oklahoma has plenty of its own problems, too. The Alabama victory stands out because the Sooners were so dreadful against every other decent SEC team they played. And the Sooners’ anemic offense ranks 94th nationally in scoring and 121st nationally in yards per game.

Can they simply flip the switch behind backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr., who tossed two touchdowns and one pick in six appearances? Hard to believe, given that the Sooners probably don’t relish playing in a mid-tier bowl game in north Texas. Navy, meanwhile, knows how to handle adversity—the Mids are 5-1 in their past six bowl games, don’t have anyone headed to the transfer portal, and their hybrid option is tough to prepare for. Given all that, the line seems too big.

Oklahoma vs Navy Armed Forces Bowl Pick: Navy +9.5

Oklahoma has gone UNDER in four of its last six games, even if the Sooners defense did seem to wave the white flag in a 37-17 pounding at LSU to close the regular season. Navy had gone UNDER in four straight entering the annual game with Army.  We’ll stick with those trends, even against a relatively low total in Fort Worth.

Oklahoma vs Navy Armed Forces Bowl Pick: UNDER 43.5

Oklahoma vs Navy News

At Oklahoma, the line for the transfer portal forms at the door. In addition to Arnold, the Sooners are also losing tight end Bauer Sharp, who started every game and was OU’s leading receiver. Running back Emeka Megwa, who didn’t play this season due to lingering effects of a knee injury suffered at his previous school, Washington, is also gone. So are backup RB Kalib Hicks and backup receiver Jaquaize Pettway. Yeah, morale can’t be very high right now in Norman.

Oklahoma vs Navy Prop Bet: Blake Horvath Anytime TD

While he runs a hybrid option that features a lot of passing for Navy, Horvath is still dangerous with his legs. The quarterback has scored 13 rushing touchdowns entering the Army game, including four against a pretty good Memphis team—where he also gained 90 yards on a single rush. Horvath is Navy’s leading rusher and passer, and will be the focus of Midshipmen attack in Fort Worth.

Oklahoma vs Navy Betting Trends