It’s been quite the turnaround for the Florida Gators, whose coach is off the hot seat and whose season has a chance to conclude with a bowl appearance. But that resurgence faces a serious challenge Saturday in Ole Miss, which opened as a 10-point favorite in the Swamp.
The Gators are coming off a 27-16 victory over 3-point road favorite LSU, which marked Florida’s sixth cover in its past seven games. The Rebels have won three straight, most recently a 28-10 pounding of Georgia two weeks ago which vaulted them into serious College Football Playoff contention, and have covered in six of their nine games against FBS opponents so far this season.
Ole Miss vs Florida Odds - Week 13
Ole Miss vs Florida, Week 13, November 23 @ 12 p.m. ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | -10.0 (-105) | -395 | O 55 (-112) |
| Florida | +10.0 (-115) | +310 | U 55 (-108) |
As of November 18
Ole Miss vs Florida Picks Week 13
Florida starting quarterback D.J. Lagway returned last week from a hamstring injury, and the difference was immediate—the freshman passed for 226 yards and a touchdown to engineer the upset of LSU. Toss out that 49-17 loss at Texas two weeks ago; Lagway missed the game, forcing the Gators to use a third-string walk-on behind center. With Lagway, Florida took Tennessee to overtime, beat LSU, and hung with Georgia into the second half, covering in each instance.
But can they continue that trend against Ole Miss, which boasts the SEC’s top offense and No. 2 scoring defense? For all of Lagway’s promise, he can’t help a Gators defense that’s allowing an average of 399 yards and 26 points per game, both 15th in the now 16-team league. If the Rebels can drop nearly 400 yards of offense on mighty Georgia, what might they be capable of in Gainesville?
That spread, though, is an awfully big one. According to data from TeamRankings.com, there have been seven double-digit road favorites in SEC games so far this season, and only one of them has covered—Ole Miss at South Carolina, where the Rebels won 27-3 as a 10-point favorite. Two of those double-digit road favorites lost outright. That trend is hard to ignore. Combined with how Florida performs with Lagway at quarterback, it adds up to the Gators being the play.
Ole Miss vs Florida Week 13 Pick: Florida +10
The Rebels’ offense may get most of the attention, but their defense keyed the victory over Georgia—and that is why Ole Miss has gone UNDER in all but one game this season against FBS competition. Florida and its suspect defense have gone OVER in three of its last four, but we’re betting the Ole Miss D sets the tempo and prevents this from turning into a shootout.
Ole Miss vs Florida Week 13 Pick: UNDER 55
Ole Miss vs Florida Prop Pick: Ja'Kobi Jackson Anytime TD
With Johnson on the shelf, Jackson has taken over the role of feature back for the Gators, and he’s largely delivered with touchdowns in each of his last three games. While Florida running backs tend to get fewer touches with Lagway in the lineup—the quarterback is the team’s biggest running threat—Jackson remains the go-to guy in short-yardage situations and at the goal line.
Ole Miss vs Florida News
The Rebels’ victory over Georgia is even more impressive when you realize they were without two of their top offensive players—receiver Tre Harris and running back Henry Parrish Jr., both out with lower body injuries. At least one of those seems set to return: Harris, who has six TDs on the season, posted “I’ll be back for Florida” Nov. 13 on social media. Meanwhile, Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. hasn’t played since the Tennessee game on Nov. 16, though he was reportedly a game-time decision against LSU last week.
Ole Miss vs Florida Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS this season as a road favorite.
- Florida is 3-2 ATS this season as a home underdog.
- Florida is 4-2 ATS in SEC games this season.
