SEC Betting Preview Week 4: High-Scoring Vols A Rare Road Favorites At Oklahoma

Nearly 200 points in three games. It boggles the mind what the Tennessee offense is doing to open this season, putting up a combined 191 points against Chattanooga, North Carolina State and Kent State. And that high-powered Volunteers attack is on a collision course with one of the SEC’s high-profile new members on Saturday night.

Welcome to the SEC, Oklahoma. And for the Sooners’ maiden conference game, they get a Tennessee team that leads the nation in total points scored, in touchdowns (24) and in points per game (67.3). The Vols have been so impressive, they’ve opened as a 7-point favorite in Norman—marking the first time the Sooners have been a touchdown underdog at home since 1998, according to ESPN.

In fairness, Tennessee hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row thus far—it’s beaten up on an FCS program, a mediocre ACC team, and arguably the worst outfit in all of FBS football. And yet, in an era when Northern Illinois can win at Notre Dame, South Florida can push Alabama into the third quarter and Bowling Green can nearly upset Penn State, there’s something to be said for taking care of business with authority. And the Vols are doing just that, even covering a 48-point line (in the first half!) in last week’s 71-0 thrashing of Kent State.

WILL BROOKS THE WALK-ON WITH A PICK SIX!!!!!!!! 🍊🤯
pic.twitter.com/LngPvIp44d

— Tennessee Volunteers (@Volology) September 8, 2024

Oklahoma has been more uneven, covering against Temple and Tulane with an unexpected close scrape against a rebuilding Houston program in between. The environment in Norman on Saturday night will be jacked up for the first SEC game in the Palace on the Plains—all of it a new experience for Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who beat N.C. State in a neutral stadium in Charlotte that was largely empty by the third quarter, and will be making his first true road start.

What a place, and what a situation, in which to do it. Iamaleava will have a former Sooners QB to lean on in his head coach, Josh Heupel, and he’s surrounded by an offense that’s shown more play-to-play consistency than any other in the nation. Is it crazy to think Tennessee can go into Oklahoma and cover? Hardly. Is it easy to think Saturday night more herald more to come from a Vols team that has Alabama and Georgia remaining on the schedule? Without a doubt.

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Early Line on Dawgs-Tide

Tennessee at Oklahoma, though, is but an appetizer for the main course to come next week: Georgia at Alabama, a seismic SEC showdown if there ever was one. The Bulldogs are an across-the-board favorite for the Sept. 28 game in Tuscaloosa, with the average line being around -3.5—which doesn’t exactly jibe with what we saw from these teams last week.

Alabama was completely dominant in a rare trip outside the South, rampaging through Wisconsin to the tune of 42-10. The Crimson Tide easily covered the 15.5-point line behind a standout performance by quarterback Jalen Milroe—who threw for three touchdowns, ran for two more, and looks more comfortable in new coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense than he ever did in Nick Saban’s.

Now compare that to Georgia, which needed a fourth-quarter touchdown—and a pick-six taken off the board by a review—to escape Kentucky 13-12. It was one of the ugliest games of coach Kirby Smart’s otherwise illustrious tenure with the Bulldogs, against a Wildcats team that had been flattened 31-6 at home by South Carolina the previous week. Kentucky completely shut down quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia passing game, which doesn’t exactly bode well against an Alabama defense allowing opponents just 115 yards per game through the air.

Oh, but that off week. In Smart’s first season at Georgia, 2016, the Bulldogs came out of an off week and lost to No. 14 Florida 24-10. They haven’t lost coming out of an off week since, winning by an average margin of 20 points. While most of those games have come against Florida, that run includes victories over two ranked Gators teams, as well as contests at Tennessee and Kentucky. Bryant-Denny Stadium, though, will surely put that streak to the test.

Favored Florida?

There’s Tennessee at Oklahoma and Georgia at Alabama—and then on the opposite end of the SEC spectrum, there’s Florida at Mississippi State.

Saturday in Starkville represents what might be the league’s worst game of the year, between an absolutely lost Gators program with a coach on the verge of termination, and a Bulldogs squad that was hammered at home last week by a MAC team. Indeed, Mississippi State’s 41-17 throttling at the hands of 11-point underdog Toledo was one of the worst home losses any SEC team has suffered in a long time.

Florida, meanwhile, was handled 33-20 at home by a Texas A&M team that had lost 10 straight true road games, and was playing a backup quarterback to boot. Sunshine State media outlets are already posting lists of who might succeed Billy Napier as the Gators’ head coach. And yet, Florida is somehow a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium. Tread carefully around this one, people.

Around the SEC

Like big point spreads? You’re in the right place. The SEC in Week 4 features seven games with lines of 20 points or larger, topped by Texas opening as a whopping 44.5-point favorite against Louisiana-Monroe. But hey, the Longhorns this season have already covered lines of -32 and -34.5, the latter in a 56-7 rout of Texas-San Antonio last week with quarterback Arch Manning subbing for injured starter Quinn Ewers.

It's a similar theme at Ole Miss, which is a 36-point favorite over Georgia Southern. The Rebels have also had little trouble with big numbers so far, covering -42 against Middle Tennessee State and -23.5 in a dominant road victory last week at Wake Forest. LSU, fresh off its narrow comeback victory at South Carolina, is a 24-point home favorite over a UCLA team that last week was embarrassed by Indiana 42-13 in the Rose Bowl.

And after tasting the rare air of a double-digit road favorite, Vanderbilt is back in its rightful place—as a 21-point underdog at Missouri. Vandy didn’t just fail to cover against 10-point home underdog Georgia State, it lost outright at a Sun Belt team that had struggled past FCS Chattanooga the previous week. Vanderbilt has lost four straight to Missouri, including by 17 last year in Nashville. It was fun while it lasted, Commodores. 

Player Prop Watch

SEC players to watch for potential prop bets in Week 4, should they be made available:

SEC Betting 3-Pack, Week 4

Arkansas +3 at Auburn

Clearly, the Hugh Freeze experiment remains a work in progress at Auburn, which didn’t (or couldn’t) add a transfer quarterback over the summer, and has suffered ATS losses in three of its last five games against FBS opponents—a stretch that includes outright home defeats to New Mexico State and Cal. Running back Ja’Quinden Jackson and quarterback Taylen Green have proven a potent combo at Arkansas, which showed its road mettle in an OT loss two weeks ago at Oklahoma State.

Ohio at Kentucky, UNDER 42.5

Kentucky ranks last in the SEC by a wide margin in scoring offense, averaging a mere 16.33 points per game. The Wildcats have scored four—four!—touchdowns over their first three contests, and have a clear problem at quarterback. No surprise, then, that Kentucky has gone UNDER in each of its first three games to start this season. The Wildcats will once again try to win with defense, this time against a respectable Ohio program that gave Syracuse a tussle in its season opener.

Bowling Green +23 at Texas A&M

Are the Falcons a better team than Florida, which the Aggies beat last week? Maybe. Bowling Green was within three points of Penn State with five minutes to play before losing 34-27 in State College, and the Falcons have a seasoned quarterback in former Missouri and Indiana starter Connor Bazelak. Texas A&M starting quarterback Conner Weigman remains questionable with a shoulder inquiry, and it would be very easy for the Aggies to overlook a MAC program with a slate of SEC games to come.