The South Florida Bulls (6-6) and San Jose State Spartans (7-5) get to spend Christmas in Hawaii this year as they face off in the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday. The Spartans are set as the 3.5-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook for this game with the total coming in at 63 points.
It should be an emotional trip for San Jose State coach Ken Niumatalolo, who played quarterback for Hawaii from 1986-89 and served as a graduate assistant from 1990-94. Who will emerge victorious on Christmas Eve? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Hawaii Bowl - South Florida vs San Jose State Odds
South Florida vs San Jose State, Dec. 24, 8:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida Bulls | +3.5 (-110) | +143 | O63 (-110) |
| San Jose State Spartans | -3.5 (-110) | -170 | U63 (-110) |
Odds as of Dec. 23 at Caesars Sportsbook
Hawaii Bowl - South Florida vs San Jose State Picks
South Florida +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Unfortunately, San Jose State will be without wide receiver Nick Nash for this game as he prepares for the NFL Draft. Nash had a remarkable season for the Spartans, catching 104 passes for 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns, but the Spartans will have to find offensive production elsewhere in this game. Defenses have double and triple-teamed Nash at times this year so an adjustment will be needed for the offense overall.
Justin Lockhart ranked second on the team with 52 catches for 973 and five touchdowns. He’ll catch passes from Walker Eget, who took over as the starter midseason as Emmett Brown was benched. Eget’s TD:INT rate isn’t as strong as Brown’s, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Eget posted 8.1 yards per attempt to Brown’s 7.4 and an 84.2 PFF passing grade to Brown’s 69.3. He also posted a superior big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate.
South Florida’s offense has been dreadful for much of the season, ranking 118th in EPA/play, and an early injury to quarterback Byrum Brown is partially to blame. There are rumblings that Brown could make his return for this game, which would lead to significant line movement in the spread for this game. Bryce Archie has struggled as the starter, but he could have a path to explosive passes in this game.
The Spartans will be without top cornerback D.J. Harvey, who allowed just a 56.3 passer rating in coverage and has since transferred to USC. They will also be missing cornerback Michael Dansby. There is also a path to rushing production for the Bulls against a Spartans defense that ranks 113th in tackling per PFF.
While San Jose State has the better quarterback in this game, the absence of Nick Nash could change everything for an offense heavily reliant on its aerial attack. With the Spartans also missing their top two cornerbacks, South Florida has a path to the outright upset in this game. With a total priced at 63, this could also be a great live trading game with an opportunity to come back on San Jose State after kickoff.
South Florida vs San Jose State Prop Picks
Not out yet but Justin Lockhart receiving yards
With Nick Nash not participating in this game, San Jose State must work the ball to Justin Lockhart more often. Lockhart had a strong finish to the season with 90+ receiving yards in four of his last five games to close out the year. Walker Eget has been a better quarterback for this passing game’s overall efficiency, which should benefit Lockhart in a great game environment with an over/under of 63 points.
South Florida vs. San Jose State Betting Trends
- Ken Niumatalolo has gone 6-5 in bowl games as a head coach
- Alex Golesh has gone 1-0 in bowl games as a head coach
- Justin Lockhart has 90+ receiving yards in four of his last five games
