Caleb Williams has been annointed the savoir of the Chicago Bears. A NFL franchise that has never seen a 4,000-yard, or a 30-touchdown passer in their 104-year history aims to take the next step with the former Heisman Trophy winner under center. With all the hype surrounding Da Bears I aim to find the value in Chicago's season betting odds and preview all the major betting markets below.
2024 Chicago Bears Super Bowl & NFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | NFC Championship Odds | NFC North Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +3500 | +1400 | +330 |
Odds as of August 11
Chicago's +3500 Super Bowl odds are far too low for a team needing some additional experience before contending for a title. Williams is a dynamic playmaker, but a Super Bowl run in his first year is highly unlikely. There are far too many contenders in the NFC for an NFC Championship winner or Super Bowl bet on the Chicago Bears to be worth your while in 2024.
Chicago's NFC North odds reflect the fact that Williams could elevate this team quickly. But, the NFC North features the 2023 Division Champion Detroit Lions and the kryptonite of the Green Bay Packers. Remember, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is a perfect 10-0 SU against the Bears. Plus, the Minnesota Vikings are no push over. If their NFC North odds were +500 or more it may be worth a flier to take Da Bears to win division. But at these odds, I advise waiting on these futures for now.
2024 Chicago Bears Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | -160 | +130 | 7-10 | 8-7-2 | 9-8 |
Odds as of August 11
At these juiced odds, I like the value on the UNDER 8.5 wins for the Chicago Bears at +130. The unpredictability of a rookie quarterback is too much of a factor for me to get behind the OVER. Sure, C.J. Stroud enjoyed a phenomenal rookie season for the Houston Texans last year, but Stroud represents the outlier, not the rule. Remember, Stroud only won nine games as rookie. And since 2018, only Mac Jones and Stroud have managed to win at least nine games as a rookie quarterback. It doesn't happen very often in an ever-competitive NFL landscape.
Chicago's 2023 results with have little effect on their 2024 outcome. The defense took massive strides down the stretch under head coach Matt Eberflus, and the addition of edge rusher Montez Sweat was a coup from General Manager Ryan Poles. However, it will be the play of Williams which influences this team success or failure more than any other single factor. Williams will face a ton of trials and tribulations throughout his first season under center, and there will very likely be far more negatives than books are currently projecting.
On top of that, the NFC North projects to be one of the NFL's better divisions, and the NFC West will prove a tough test for this young Bears' squad. Make the contrarian wager and the play the UNDER 8.5 on the Bears 2024 season win total.
2024 Chicago Bears Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -106 | -114 |
Odds as of August 11
Chicago's odds to make the playoffs are so juiced that the only value lies on betting against them. At -106 odds, it's a coin flip and an implied 51.46% to make the playoffs according to our odds calculator. There are far better wagers I like on the NFL futures board.
Sportsbooks are more or less accounting for the fact that Caleb Williams is almost assured to be a successful NFL quarterback and factored that into the price before he takes even one meaningful snap. I like the safer play on the Bears to miss the playoffs at -114. A hardnosed NFC North and their conference matchups against the equally battle-tested NFC South will be their undoing this year. Chicago's future looks bright, but they're at least a year away from a playoff trip.
2024 Chicago Bears NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | +140 |
Odds as of August 11
Caleb Williams is the favorite for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award at +140 odds, and it's easy to see why. With his combination of arm talent, football IQ and uncanny playmaking ability he has all the tools to succeed.
That being said, the pressure on him will be immense, and the Bears' overall team success will play a large role in whether or not he can win the award. That, along with the presence of another potential generational prospect (cough* Marvin Harrison Jr. +650) available at far better odds, I'll pass on betting Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year for now. Should his odds fall during of the season, there will be value in betting on the USC product to win down the road.
