For my 2024 Houston Texans season preview, I'm keeping a close eye on the growth of C.J. Stroud and his combination with DeMeco Ryans. After a successful 2023, when Stroud and Ryans accelerated Houston's rebuild en-route to an 11-8 season, sportsbooks have taken notice and are offering odds that seem lofty at this point and should give bettors a pause before running to the window.
2024 Houston Texans Super Bowl & AFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | AFC Championship Odds | AFC South Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +1500 | +800 | +105 |
Odds as of August 1
Buoyed by an outstanding rookie season from quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans enter 2024 riding high. Perhaps the surprise team of the season, Houston went 10-7 to win the AFC South last year. That being said, while Stroud is an outstanding talent, these futures odds are far too juiced to provide much value. Books have moved the Texans way up the odds board after all of their young passers' success last season. The public will be all over Houston this season, so you should be on the opposite side. The Texans currently have better AFC Championship odds than the far more experienced and battled-tested New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
General Manager Nick Caserio brought in accomplished veterans Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to aid their young core on offense. While star pass-rusher Danielle Hunter, and Azeez Al-Shair shore up the defensive side of the ball.
There’s no reason to believe the Texans will fail this season, with former star DeMeco Ryans doing an outstanding job at the helm. However, some regression is more likely than not, as the team now takes on a first-place schedule.
The AFC South is the worst division in football. But, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts boast polarizing young passers too. For that reason, I'd hold off on wagering on the Texans to win the division, as their tough schedule, combined with their low odds leave little value for bettors.
2024 Houston Texans Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | -150 | +122 | 11-8 | 10-9 | 7-11-1 |
Odds as of August 1
While its division is less than stellar, Houston battles one of top divisions in football in the NFC North this year. It also takes on contenders like the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs.
Repeating last year’s performance and getting to double-digit wins will be tough. At +122 odds, I like Houston to go UNDER 9.5 total wins for the 2024 NFL season.
2024 Houston Texans Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -194 | +156 |
Odds as of August 1
Since the public will be heavily invested on C.J. Stroud's sophomore season, sportsbooks have juiced the Texans odds to make the playoffs. At -194 odds there's far too much risk to place a wager on Houston to return to the postseason. I'd much rather bet on Houston to miss the playoffs at plus money, as a rough late season schedule may leave them on the outside looking in.
A tough December stretch, in which the Texans battle the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens in succession may offer bettors some value in this market. Stay tuned to our NFL computer picks page for even more ways to handicap Houston this season.
2024 Houston Texans NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | +1000 |
Odds as of August 1
The entire NFL world has taken notice of the incredible rise of C.J. Stroud. He put together one of the greatest rookie quarterback season’s in NFL history, and is set to build on that in 2024.
However, he’s now fourth on the odds to win NFL MVP. Just behind the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. At +1000 odds, there are far better value bets on the NFL futures board. Those looking for value on Stroud's season long player props should look at his passing yardage. Currently set at 4,175.5 yards, I like the value on the UNDER at -112 odds. His sparkling 8.2 yards per attempt from last season is simply unsustainable and the presence of Mixon makes me believe Houston will aim to lighten the load on No.7's shoulders.
