I see a lot of upside breaking down this 2024 Cincinnati Bengals season preview and odds analysis.
The Bengals were pretty mediocre last year, in large part thanks to some key injuries, including to QB Joe Burrow. But, with Joe Shiesty healthy entering the season for the first time in a while, I think Cincinnati has a chance to be one of the best teams in the NFL.
Here's my complete preview of the Bengals' 2024 chances in all major NFL odds markets:
2024 Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl & AFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | AFC Championship Odds | AFC North Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +1500 | +750 | +165 |
Odds as of August 23
The Bengals might be my favorite bet this season, when it comes to picking a team to dethrone Kansas City in the AFC. It all comes down to Joe Burrow's health.
When Burrow is healthy, the Bengals win games — they're 27-15 with him at QB the last three seasons. But, he missed seven contests last year, forcing the Bengals to turn to Jake Browning for half the year. The Bengals didn't really make any big adds this offseason, but a full season of Burrow will help them compete for the division and a shot at a deep playoff run.
I think the Chiefs are the clear AFC Championship favorites, but the Bengals are right there with the Ravens for the second-best chance. At +750, they're a great value pick. Burrow is 5-2 lifetime as a playoff starter.
I like Cinci's AFC title odds a bit better than the Super Bowl line — we've seen them get to the big game and fall short already.
2024 Cincinnati Bengals Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | -120 | -102 | 9-8 | 7-8-2 | 10-7 |
Odds as of August 23
I'm not as in love with this win total line as I am with betting the bigger markets on the Bengals. This is a team of upside (largely surrounding the health of their QB), so I'd rather take the juicier payouts on an AFC Championship bet than hoping they can squeeze out 11 or 12 wins.
I'm also not sure the Bengals will be as great of an OVER play in 2024-25. Their main offseason adds were running back Zack Moss and some players on the defensive secondary. All of those players will bring down the Bengals' pace of play and should slow the scoring on both sides.
2024 Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -250 | +194 |
Odds as of August 23
Okay hear me out. I just said I like the Bengals to compete for a spot in the Super Bowl, yet I'm going to tell you to bet them NOT to make the playoffs.
As I mentioned above, the Bengals' 2024 chances are tied to the health of Joe Burrow. If he's healthy, the Bengals are a top-five team in the NFL. But if he's not...
We've seen Burrow miss 6+ games in HALF his NFL seasons during his career, and while the Bengals O-Line is improved, it still won't always be able to keep him upright. I think at these +194 odds, it's worth a sprinkle on the Bengals to miss the playoffs as a value play.
2024 Cincinnati Bengals NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +1000 |
Odds as of August 23
I feel like we kind of know what the best of Joe Burrow is. We saw it in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, where he threw for 34+ touchdowns and around 13 interceptions. He was on pace for similar numbers before getting hurt last year. That's really good, but not MVP stuff.
Even in his best season, 2022, Burrow just finished fourth in MVP voting. So, even if you think Burrow can stay healthy this season, I'm not sure I'm touching him at +1000 in NFL MVP odds.
