2024 Cleveland Browns Season Preview & Odds: Playoff Bound Once Again?

This look at the Cleveland Browns season preview and odds is pretty pessimistic for a team coming off an 11-win season.

We all know what Cleveland's defense can do, but the Browns' hopes this year rely on the upside of Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and mostly Deshaun Watson at QB. Can that group lead them to the playoffs?

Here's my complete preview of the Browns' 2024 chances in all major NFL odds markets:

2024 Cleveland Browns Super Bowl & AFC Odds

Odds as of August 27

The Browns are a particularly difficult team to handicap. On one side, they’re the Browns — what can go wrong will, and there’s a lot that can go wrong with this year’s Cleveland squad. On the other hand, this is a team that’s won 11 games in two of the last four seasons, including last year.

I’ll talk a bit about the downside below, but I think — more importantly for these betting markets — we know Cleveland’s upside. This is a flawed offensive team with a bunch of aging players that are heaved up by maybe the best defense in the league.

That defense can win you 10+ games in the regular season, but it’s not going to make Cleveland a real AFC Championship or Super Bowl threat with the holes on offense.

Unless Nick Chubb comes back from injury in incredible form and Watson somehow turns things back around, this is a wild-card playoff team at best. I'm staying away from Cleveland in the division and title futures.

2024 Cleveland Browns Win Total Odds

Odds as of August 27

This Browns' win total is a lot more interesting to me than the Super Bowl odds. Coming off an 11-win season you'd think this is a wild line at 8.5, but the Browns do have the third-hardest schedule in the NFL. However, I think they have the upside with this defense and some offensive talent to get to nine or more wins. If you believe in Watson and Chubb even a bit, I think it's fair to bet this OVER win total line. There's also the path to an OVER with an injury to Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow, both AFC North QBs with pretty lengthy injury histories.

For your weekly bets, it's important to note that the Browns were the best OVER team in football last year, hitting the mark in 12 of their 18 total games played (including playoffs).

I think both books (and bettors) saw the Browns' defensive success and expected games to go UNDER, but it just didn’t happen. I'll be looking at Cleveland OVERs for the first few games of this season, for sure. The Browns went OVER the point total in their final four games of 2023-24, and seven of the last eight contests.

2024 Cleveland Browns Playoff Odds

Odds as of August 27

These Browns playoff odds imply a 40.32% chance Cleveland is in the dance this year, and I think that's pretty fair.

I view teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, and Texans as the AFC playoff locks, leaving two spots up for grabs. The Browns' defense should allow them to hang with the other fringe playoff teams like the Jags, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and Dolphins. But, it’s hard to see Cleveland being better than four of those squads, especially with a difficult division and schedule.

I’m probably staying away from this line unless Watson comes out firing early in the season to give me some hope.

2024 Cleveland Browns NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of August 27

I'm not sure I'm touching Watson or any other Browns player in NFL MVP odds this season, but where some Cleveland players do have a shot is Comeback Player of the Year odds.

Both Chubb (+1100) and Watson (+4000) are in the top 10 in CPoY odds right now and could put together a good enough 2024 campaign to win the award. While Chubb is coming back from a lost season due to injury, I think Watson has the easier path. If he can even be a top-10 QB this year, he’ll have a legit shot at this award. He could join Joe Flacco!