The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024 NFL season in a state of transition with the team entering a rebuilding phase under Kevin O'Connell. With veteran quarterback Sam Darnold stepping in as the starter, this Vikings team has more questions than answers. With the NFL season about to kickoff, I took a deep dive into the Vikings season long-betting odds, analyzing their potential and where bettors can find value.
2024 Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl & NFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | NFC Championship Odds | NFC North Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +1200 | +3500 | +850 |
Odds as of August 28
Minnesota is at a cross roads. Their long odds on these betting markets reflect the fact that this is a team in transition. On the one hand, a few of their players are entering elite territory, but on the other, there a plethora of holes that even the greatness of Justin Jefferson won't cover up this season. Sam Darnold has been brutal since being selected with third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He's gone just 21-35 as a starter, and has looked hopelessly lost on the football field at times. The narrative that Darnold is going to somehow spectacularly turn his career around in his seventh season under the tutelage of Kevin O'Connell is a tired one that rarely comes to fruition. At this point in his career, Darnold is who he is.
The Vikings losing Danielle Hunter and his 16.5 sacks doesn't help matters. Standout safety Hunter Smith is another year older, Stephon Gilmore is past his prime and Shaquill Griffin is a replacement level player. Their front seven also leaves a lot to be desired.
While Minnesota has compiled their most talented offensive line in a decade, this team will go only as far as #14 can take them. And thus far, Darnold has done little to suggest he's able to guide an NFL team into the playoffs. J.J. McCarthy's season ending injury may have been a blessing in disguise for this squad.
Don't waste your money on these season long Vikings betting markets. There's far better value to be had on the NFL futures board.
2024 Minnesota Vikings Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | +134 | -168 | 7-10 | 7-7-3 | 7-10 |
Odds as of August 28
To me, Minnesota's 7.5 win total is awfully ambitious. To the point where I'm running to the window to bet the UNDER 5.5 wins at +194. Their lack of talent, along with the fourth toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this season makes the Vikings a fade play. Plus, the Vikings went 4-1 ATS as a road underdog last season, and beat teams like the juggernaut 49ers. Those wins will be hard to come by with a vastly inferior roster in 2024.
As you can imagine with so many quarterbacks under center, the total went UNDER in 10 of the Vikings 17 games last season. I don't see that totals trend repeating itself in 2024, especially with Darnold's propensity to turn over the football. He's thrown 56 interceptions, to go along with 38 fumbles in 56 starts during his career.
2024 Minnesota Vikings Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| +270 | -355 |
Odds as of August 28
The odds are heavily skewed against Minnesota making the playoffs this year, and for good reason.
At +270 to make the postseason, the Vikings are a longshot in an ultra competitive NFC North. Detroit and Green Bay figure to dominate proceedings once again, while Chicago will be a much improved football team with Caleb Williams under center. Pass on Minnesota in the playoff betting market.
2024 Minnesota Vikings NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold | +20000 |
Odds as of August 28
Jefferson is an elite talent, but he can't throw the football to himself. If Sam Darnold wins the 2024 NFL MVP award I will print this article and eat it.
