There are always a few eyebrow-raising NFL futures bets that come across the timeline every summer, and one such bet was made public this last week.
A bettor at FanDuel wagered $250 on Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP at 300-1 odds. The same bettor also wagered $250 on Darnold at 400-1 odds to win the AP NFL regular season Offensive Player of the Year Award. Darnold is currently set to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starter, but it’s widely expected that first-round pick J.J. McCarthy will take over at some point this season.
One bettor at @FDSportsbook wagered $250 on Sam Darnold at 300-1 odds to win NFL MVP this season.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) July 7, 2024
Bet would win $75,000
So why the faith in Darnold for this bettor?
I asked the bettor himself, Jesse Hynes, about his reasoning for making the wagers on Darnold. Hynes, a 35-year-old lawyer living in New Jersey, was kind enough to answer my questions.
How long have you been betting?
I’m sure this may or may not come as a surprise, but I actually don’t really bet often. I have done some casual betting here and there, but really nothing significant. When I do bet, it is generally football related. I often like to play the long shots, knowing that the likelihood of them hitting can be near zero. For example, I have bet the Jets winning the Super Bowl a few times, and we all know how that has worked out. I never bet more than I’m willing to lose.
What is your reasoning behind those two bets on Sam Darnold?
Sam Darnold is a QB [whom] I have always believed got a raw deal. Being drafted by the Jets is no picnic, and I always felt he was never really set up for success. You could always see the pure talent that he has. I have honestly probably been one of his biggest supporters over the last few years and have been following his career since he was drafted waiting for him to get an opportunity with a team that had more than Robbie/Chosen Anderson as [its] best WR. While I have certainly been made fun of for this, I still have Darnold on my two-team QB Dynasty Football team in a league with my friends.
The Vikings have one of the most talented offenses and head coaches in my opinion, and for now Sam seems to be the starter. When I look at the situation that he is in, this is the year where you can definitively finally assess whether he is a draft bust or just unlucky. And for me, it’s kind of a ‘put-up or shut-up’ bet. I have been saying for years that he got a raw deal and would flourish if he ever found himself on a talented team with a good coach. I figured it was time to put my money where my mouth is.
How big a wager is that comparatively for you? 1 unit, 0.5 unit, etc.
These bets aren’t insignificant for me, but also if I lose the money, I won’t be without a home or be unable to eat. My rule of thumb is to assume that the money that I’ve bet is already lost. If I can’t afford to lose it, [I] don’t bet it. I bet for fun and excitement, rather than as some coordinated effort to make a living.
Since I am a casual bettor I can’t really speak in terms of units as I don’t sit there looking for the next bet.
What is your day job/industry you work in?
I am a lawyer by trade, but also created a startup called Seedstarter – which is meant to open up early start-up investing to the regular people (non-accredited) investors. This was inspired by my time serving as a Chief Legal Officer at a blockchain gaming company.
Why do you like to bet long shots as opposed to single games?
Just because there is more excitement there. It gives you something to root for [over] a whole season rather than one game at a time. I don’t really make bets as a form of income generation, it’s moreso fun that may pay out. Long shots have the excitement of a big payout even though the odds are extremely unlikely.
Have you had any long shots cash yet?
Not really, no. But I never do this enough. I've won a couple longshot horse bets, but I never put much on them.
