Jets vs 49ers Odds & Picks Week 1: Jets, Hall to shine on MNF

The 49ers are four point favorites vs. the Jets as they square off in the seasons first Monday Night Football of the season. NFL schedule makers created a dream matchup of two potential playoff teams with endless storylines.

Aaron Rodgers returns after his devastating Week 1 last season thanks to a tackle from Leonard Floyd who now plays for the 49ers. Rodgers is also facing the team who passed him up in the 2005 NFL Draft, and he’s not been shy about that chip on his shoulder.

But, lost in all the Aaron Rodgers drama is the fact that Jets coach Robert Saleh is playing his mentor and former boss Kyle Shanahan. The two called plays vs. each other every day in practice for four years in San Francisco. Saleh has a trio of 49ers castoffs (Solomon Thomas, Javon Kinlaw, and DJ Reed) seeking revenge under the MNF lights.

Jets Vs 49ers Odds Week 1

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 pm ET

Odds as of August 28

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Jets Vs 49ers Picks Week 1

Jets +4 (-110) vs. 49ers

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing and one could argue it’s already hit the 49ers as their offseason has had more drama than an episode of Jersey Shore.

Star WR Brandon Aiyuk finally signed his contract, but left tackle Trent Williams is holding out and key players (Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw) are working their way back from serious injuries. Greenlaw won’t play and Hufanga’s status is up in the air along with defensive linemen Yetur Gross-Mates and Leonard Floyd.

Because the 49ers lack depth on the offensive line, I think Williams is worth a hair less than two points on the spread. If Williams is out, it will drastically impact the 49ers rushing and passing attack and the Jets would become a sneaky moneyline play.

As a team, the 49ers averaged 6.0 YPC (3 TD) rushing behind LT last season and only 2.3 YPC (1 TD) behind right tackle. On running plays behind the LG, the 49ers averaged 5.6 YPC (3 TD) compared to 4.2 YPC (2 TD) behind the RG. The 49ers’ rush plays went to the left of center 60% of the time last season and Trent Williams is a big reason why. Of course, Williams could still play Week 1 he’s missed all of training camp and the preseason so he may need to shake off some rust if he does. Oh, and speaking of rust, 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey has been nursing a calf injury and may be on a pitch count.

Kyle Shanahan is 3-4 SU in Week 1 games, and while Robert Saleh is 1-2, he can at least blame that on his previously bare roster. Shanahan is entering this game vulnerable like a wounded animal and facing an opponent who knows his tendencies so well could make matters worse.

This game opened with the Jets catching +5.5 points, but the early money has come in on the Jets and early summer money tends to be sharper money. I think wise guys see the writing on the wall and the Jets will keep this one close.

The 49ers were gashed in the running game during the playoffs last year when Green Bay's Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards while Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 138 Detroit rushing yards. San Francisco hasn't done much to beef up their running game and losing DT Arik Armstead and LB Dre Greenlaw should make it worse. This is all welcome news for Breece Hall who is set up to make himself a household name on Monday Night Football.

Hall notched 1,585 yards from scrimmage behind a bad offensive line with a QB who couldn't stretch the field. The Jets made major renovations in the trenches and Rodgers will keep defenses honest. 

If you have a dance partner you like in a teaser, I also think the Jets +10 is a nice 6-point teaser leg. I think this point spread could reach -3 by kickoff. 

Jets Vs 49ers Prop Pick

Breece Hall over 62.5 rush yards (-115)

Hall finished the 2023 campaign with 357 rush yards and four total TDs in his final three games last season vs. the Commanders, Browns, and Patriots. The Browns and Patriots had solid run defenses last year and Hall carved them up in a terrible offense with poor run blockers. This season, Hall has help up front and behind center and as noted above, the 49ers defense is vulnerable. 

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Jets Vs 49ers Betting Trends