Saints Still Favored Over Falcons Without Winston

New Orleans (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) upset the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers last week but lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the season in the process. The Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites against Atlanta (3-4, 3-4), which is 1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Winston’s injury had little impact on the point spread, which had actually moved to New Orleans -6 at some betting sites by Monday night. There was a lot of early support for the UNDER, however, driving the total down to 41.5.

Atlanta News & Notes

Take away Kyle Pitts, take away the Falcons’ passing game. That’s what it looked like last week against Carolina, at least, when Atlanta managed just 146 yards through the air in a 19-13 loss to the Panthers.

With Atlanta deep threat Calvin Ridley out of action indefinitely due to mental health concerns, Carolina concentrated its coverage on Pitts, holding the rookie tight end to two catches for 13 yards — one game after he exploded for 163 yards in a win over Miami.

Atlanta’s longest pass play against the Panthers was an 18-yard connection to running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who combined with fellow running back Mike Davis to catch 11 of Matt Ryan’s 20 completions. Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus were the only receivers to snare a pass, catching six balls combined for 70 yards.

The Falcons offense also didn’t have much chance to get into a rhythm because Atlanta’s defense struggled to get off the field, allowing Carolina to run for 203 yards and control the ball for more than 35 minutes.

The loss to the Panthers dropped Atlanta to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games against NFC South rivals.

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New Orleans News & Notes

At the time of writing, it wasn’t clear whether Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill would be New Orleans’ starting quarterback in place of Winston, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in last week’s 36-27 win over Tampa Bay.

Siemian played well in relief of Winston last week, but coach Sean Payton may also opt to start Hill, who was 3-1 SU as a starter last year but has been sidelined by a concussion since Week 5.

Fortunately for New Orleans, no team in the NFL might be better equipped to overcome the loss of a starting quarterback. The Saints’ success this year has come in spite of a passing attack that is averaging the second-fewest yards in the league, relying heavily on a solid running game and a defense that is allowing just 18.4 points per contest.

That strategy has been even more pronounced against division rivals, with New Orleans going UNDER the total in six of its last seven games against NFC South foes. The Saints also have a long history of low-scoring games against the Falcons at home, going 7-1 to the UNDER in the last eight meetings at the Superdome.

How Atlanta Will Cover

The Falcons’ best shot at the cover is to focus on shutting down the Saints’ running attack and force whoever New Orleans starts at quarterback to beat them through the air. Atlanta also needs to find a way to get Pitts more involved in the passing game once again.

How New Orleans Will Cover

The Saints thrived last season with a backup quarterback and should be able to do it again by shutting down an Atlanta offense that is lacking big-play threats right now. The Falcons have been held to 18 points or less in four of the last five meetings.

Computer Pick: Saints -6

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