2025-26 NFL MVP Odds: Lamar Jackson the Favorite

Okay NFL fans, it's time to dive into another season of NFL MVP odds.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen took home the 2024-25 MVP, nudging out Lamar Jackson. But, it's Jackson (+450) who finds himself atop the odds for next season, with Allen (+600), and Patrick Mahomes (+700) rounding out the top of the list at Sportsbook.

2025-26 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of Feb. 19th from Sportsbook 

Why Lamar Jackson Is nFL MVP Favorite

Lamar Jackson is just such a safe MVP bet, so he rightfully belongs at the top of the list. In his first seven NFL seasons, he's already won the MVP twice and came second in 2024-25.

Honestly, you can make an argument Jackson should've won last year and would've if not for "Action Jackson" fatigue. The Ravens quarterback led football in touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating. On top of 41 passing touchdowns and 4172 yards, Jackson also added 915 rushing yards in 2024.

With a great team around him and two-way dominance, Jackson can win an MVP any year, as long as the Ravens win the AFC North and he stays healthy.

See Our Best NFL Betting Sites Here

2025-26 NFL MVP Value Pick: Joe Burrow (+750)

He's not that far down the board, but Burrow is easily my best value in this market before the season starts.

If Burrow's Bengals weren't so defensively incompetent this year, the Cinci QB probably would've won his first MVP in 2024. Burrow led the NFL in completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and yards per game. Despite leading a 9-8 team that missed the playoffs, he finished fourth in MVP voting and won Comeback Player of the Year.

There is a decent chance that Burrow loses his WR2 in Tee Higgins this year, but if the Bengals can beef up the defense enough to let the Bengals win 11 or more games in 2025-26, I think Burrow has a great shot at MVP.

Sharp money is with me on this pick, too. According to Sportsbook's early futures data, Burrow has 35.3% of all MVP money resting on him, so far. He isn’t in the top-three most bet players by total bets, though (Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels), signally it’s big wagers from whales on Burrow, not casuals. Never a bad idea to ride with the sharps.

NFL MVP Winner History

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy & Trends

All you have to do is determine which quarterback you think will break out in 2025. No other position has taken home the MVP trophy since Adrian Peterson's spectacular 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. The odds of a non-quarterback winning the award are so long that Saquon Barkley currently sits 17th on the odds board at +5000. Having said that, Barkley did finish third in the award voting last year.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP handicapping, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and perhaps switch gears during the season if a non-QB really starts to separate. Historically, the two largest factors that determine the NFL MVP are touchdowns and team wins.

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. Thus, we're searching for a quarterback that has a chance to lead this team to a high number of wins, while contributing a high number of touchdowns in those victories.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Sportsbooks update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

Teams With the most NFL MVPs

The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.