The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos in the AFC Wild Card round as 9-point favorites. Oddsmakers set the total at 47 in a game between two quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Bo Nix) who are playing really well.
The Broncos find themselves in their first playoff game since their 2015 Super Bowl season, while Buffalo is making its sixth-straight playoff appearance.
Keep reading for all the Broncos vs Bills odds, and my best bets for this Wild Card weekend showdown.
Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Odds
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, January 12th, 1 pm ET
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Denver Broncos | +9 (-110) | +350 | O 47 (-110) |
Buffalo Bills | -9 (-110) | -450 | U 47 (-110) |
Odds via as of January 6th
Shop around because there are sportsbooks that have the Bills listed at -8.5, and at that number, a 6-point teaser leg is worth considering.
Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Picks
Bills Moneyline (-450)
I wouldn't be at all surprised to Sean Payton cover the number and give Bills fans a scare, but the Bills are a good bet to win this game outright. I understand you may be disappointed to see a moneyline bet in this space, but it's a fair number for arguably the best team in the NFL vs. a Broncos squad that's good, but not great.
Playoff football is all about quarterback composure and I'll trust Josh Allen and his 10 career playoff starts (21 TD, 4 INT) over Bo Nix making his first career postseason appearance. It's also worth noting that the Broncos have lost three games this season to mobile quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson).
One of Denver's biggest strengths this season will be neutralized. Denver ranks 3rd in redzone defense (46.94%), but is facing a Buffalo team with Allen that's an absolute juggernaut close to the goal line. The Bills ranked 2nd in the NFL in redzone scoring (71.64%) and now that the playoffs are here I'd expect Allen to take even more chances with his legs. Denver's redzone defense has been worse the last three weeks (63.64%) and the Bills can capitalize on their mistakes.
I don't give Denver any credit for beating up on Kansas City's backups last week and they were 1-2 in their prior three games before that. The Bills meanwhile, has won 10 of 11 games before resting starters last week. Buffalo's offense had scored 30+ points in eight of their nine games prior to last week.
Buffalo is 8-0 at home this year and their fans get a little extra rowdy for playoff games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost four of their last five road games with their only win coming vs. the lowly Raiders.
Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Props
It's a little too early in the week for Broncos vs. Bills player props, but check back here as we get closer to kickoff to see my favorite player prop angle.
Broncos vs Bills Wild Card News
Currently the weather is expected to be 29 degrees with a 22% chance of precipitation and 10 MPH winds, but we're several days out so that weather report can change quickly. Snow showers are expected the day before and after the game, so it wouldn't surprise anyone if we had snowy conditions for kickoff.
The Bills enter this contest pretty well rested after Josh Allen played only one snap last week and James Cook played 15 snaps.
Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Betting Trends