The Buffalo Bills (13-3) have clinched the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference, leaving them with a relatively meaningless game against the New England Patriots (3-13) this week. The early indication is that the Bills (-3 at bet365) won’t give their starters any real run, although Josh Allen will start the game to keep his streak of consecutive starts alive. He holds the longest active streak among NFL quarterbacks at 114 games.
With a loss this week, the Patriots would secure the No. 1 pick for the first time since 1993, but head coach Jerod Mayo said the team is “100% focused on beating the Buffalo Bills.” With motivations in question in this AFC East matchup, a clear handicap is challenging to discern, but let’s dive into the matchup and see where the value lies.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds Week 18
Bills vs Patriots, January 5, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -3 (-105) | -150 | O38 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | +3 (-115) | +125 | U38 (-110) |
Odds as of Dec. 31 at bet365
Bills vs Patriots Picks -- Week 18
Patriots +3 (-115) at bet365
For now, it seems the Patriots will still give rookie quarterback Drake Maye the start this week as he closes out an impressive season where he’s flashed plenty of upside. When asked if the team would consider benching Maye to limit his exposure to potential injury, Mayo said, “I would say right now, everything is in consideration, and we’ll see how the week goes... It’s the last game of the season, and we have to look forward. It’s a journey. It’s trying to be present and win this football game, but we have to look out the front windshield and where we want to go.”
Assuming Maye is on the field on Sunday, the Patriots would have a real chance to win this game and hurt their chances to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Bills are expected to play a blend of starters and backups in this game. Still, Sean McDermott’s history indicates that Buffalo will likely use this to give some run to players who wouldn’t otherwise see playing time.
There haven’t been many positive takeaways from this season for a Patriots team with a near league-worst defense, offensive line, and skill position group. However, Maye gives this team a puncher’s chance every time he steps on the field, and if he suits up against the Bills' backups, the best bet would be backing him as a home underdog.
Bills vs Patriots Prop Pick Week 18
Kayshon Boutte Receiving Yards (Odds Not Available Yet)
When you turn on Drake Maye’s tape every week, it’s evident that he has massive long-term potential. One player who has benefitted from the rookie’s continued strong play has been wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, who has had a solid end of the season. Boutte has caught 4+ passes in two straight games, and he’s finished with 40+ receiving yards in two of his last four games. This game presents an opportunity to finish his season on a high note.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends
- The Bills have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
- The Patriots have gone 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six games
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Patriots’ last six games
