Dolphins vs Jets Odds & Picks Week 18: Jets Look To Play Spoilers In Week 18

The path for the Miami Dolphins (8-8) to make the playoffs is simple. Beat the New York Jets (4-12) on Sunday and watch the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, and they’re in the postseason. The Chiefs are expected to bench their starters on Sunday, so the Broncos are 9.5-point favorites, while the Dolphins are just a 1-point favorite at bet365.

Unfortunately, it looks like Miami will be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday after he missed last week’s game with a hip injury. Tyler Huntley handled himself well in a win over the Browns, but can he repeat the feat against the Jets? Or will Aaron Rodgers lead his team to a win and end a sour season on a high note? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out. 

Dolphins vs Jets Odds Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets, Jan. 5, 4:25 pm ET

Odds as of Jan. 2 at bet365

Dolphins vs. Jets Picks - Week 18

Jets +1 (-110) at bet365

The Dolphins secured the win last week despite Tua Tagovailoa being out, as Tyler Huntley had his best game of the year, completing 22-26 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown. However, we have a large sample size of Huntley struggling mightily this season - he ranks 43rd out of 46 qualified quarterbacks with a 38.1% passing success rate. It’s unlikely that he will repeat that strong performance two weeks in a row.

Aaron Rodgers has had a disappointing season as he nears the end of a legendary career, but the Jets should be able to lean on Breece Hall and the run game in this matchup. The Dolphins rank 21st in run defense DVOA, and with Braelon Allen also flashing upside as a rookie, the Jets have a talented backfield to take advantage.

While the Dolphins have a much better record this season, there isn’t much to separate these squads, especially without Tagovailoa. The Dolphins rank 20th in total DVOA, while the Jets rank 24th. Both teams are below-average in both offensive and defensive DVOA. We’re getting a premium on the Dolphins here as a team in a must-win situation, but history shows that the value is on the other side.

Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks have gone 105-69-4 (60%) ATS. In addition, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 27-72-4 (27%) ATS against opponents with an 8-25% or worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.8 points per game. Both trends apply to this game, making the Jets the play as a home underdog. 

Dolphins vs Jets Prop Picks Week 18

Breece Hall O51.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at bet365

Expected to be one of the breakout running backs of the season, Hall has had a challenging year, along with the rest of the Jets offense. With 819 rushing yards on the season, he likely can’t break the 1,000-yard threshold, but this matchup does present an opportunity to end his year on a high note. The Dolphins rank 21st in run defense DVOA and 16th in defensive line yards. Hall has posted 50+ rushing yards in six of his last eight games - look for him to hit that mark again here.

Dolphins vs Jets Betting Trends