Bills vs Seahawks Odds & Picks Week 8: Trust James Cook

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills head to Seattle as -172 favorites against the Seahawks this week. After rattling off back-to-back wins, the road squad are three-point favs in Bills vs Seahawks odds with the point total set at O/U 47.5.

I think the sportsbooks are giving the Seahawks too much credit here, though. So I'll take the Bills -3 and a James Cook player prop this week:

Bills vs Seahawks Odds Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Seattle Seahawks, Oct. 27, 4:05 pm ET

Ravens vs Browns Odds
Team	Runline	Moneyline	Totals
Buffalo Bills	-3 (-115)	-172	O 47.5 (-105)
Seattle Seahawks	+3 (-105)	+144	U 47.5 (-115)

Bills vs Seahawks Picks Week 8

Bills -3 (-115)

I think this line is far too overreactive to Seattle's 34-14 win over the Falcons last week. Sure, that's an impressive victory, but the Seahawks went 0-3 with a -24 point differential in the three previous weeks. The Bills still have a 47-point better point differential, have 1.1 more expected wins, and rank 14 spots ahead of the Seahawks in net EPA. This isn't the kind of game that should have a small three-point line.

I also think the Bills' game plan is going to work effectively against the Seahawks. Buffalo is at its best when James Cook is a bell-cow runner, Josh Allen has his own ground game going, and then the deep shots are sprinkled in. Lucky for Buffalo, the Seahawks have one of the worst rushing defenses in football. Seattle has allowed 146.1 rushing yards per game (fifth-most in football).

Bills vs Seahawks Parlay

Bills +351 Parlay

Bills Moneyline (-172)
UNDER 47.5 (-115)
James Cook OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

This parlay is built around the Buffalo path to victory I see. I think they'll keep the ball on the ground against Seattle's bad rushing defense, leading to a slower pace of play (hence the UNDER) and James Cook having a big day. The Bills are 2-1 this season when Cook gets more than 60 rushing yards. The only loss was a 23-20 L in Houston.