We've got ourselves a Jameis Winston revenge game this week. The Browns and Winston face the QB's old team, the Saints, with New Orleans sitting as 1.5-point home favorites.
With Derek Carr back at QB, New Orleans is favored to snatch a second victory in row after a string of big losses. I've got a pick on the spread and a Carr prop for this contest.
I'll break down complete Browns vs Saints odds and picks below:
Browns vs Saints Odds Week 11
Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints, Nov. 17, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +1.5 (-115) | +100 | O 44.5 (-105) |
| New Orleans Saints | -1.5 (-105) | -118 | U 44.5 (-115) |
As of November 12th at Fanduel
Browns vs Saints Picks Week 11
Saints -1.5 (-105)
When Derek Carr plays, the Saints aren't THAT bad. New Orleans is 3-4 in games with Carr at QB, covering the spread in four of the contests. In games without Carr, the Saints are 0-4 straight and 0-4 against the spread. Lucky for New Orleans, Carr is set to play this week.
The Browns, on the other hand, seem to stink no matter who they play at QB. After a shocking win against the Ravens with Jameis Winston at QB, he crashed back to earth with just 10 points against the Chargers.
The Saints are by no means a powerhouse, ranking 22nd in point differential and 19th in expected points added per play (both marks are higher in Carr games, though). But, the Browns are much worse: 28th in point differential and 25th in EPA. I think a healthy Carr is enough to make this -1.5 Saints bet a safe play.
Browns vs Saints Prop Pick
Derek Carr OVER 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Even though New Orleans' entire receiving group is hurt right now, I still think Carr can find a way to hit this OVER. If you exclude the early-October game against the Chiefs when Carr got hurt, the Saints QB1 has surpassed this 211.5 passing yard mark in his last three starts and four of seven outings this season.
Last week, Carr was able to make some magic with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Alvin Kamara, and even Taysom Hill to get up to 269 passing yards.
Another positive is the fact that Cleveland's passing defense has been pretty mediocre this year. The Browns have let up 224 passing yards per game this season and over 280 in each of the last two games.
Browns vs Saints Betting Trends
- The OVER has hit in nine of the last 12 Cleveland Browns road games
- The Browns are 3-6 in their last nine road games
- Derek Carr has gone OVER 2.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games (you can bet OVER 2.5 Carr rush yards at -115 at FanDuel)
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights:
