The NFL Playoffs have arrived, and the Wild Card round is loaded with big-time matchups. On Sunday, the Washington Commanders (12-5) visit, as 3-point underdogs at Sportsbook, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) in a fascinating NFC rematch between two teams who faced off in Week 1.
Can rookie phenom Jayden Daniels lead Washington to its first playoff win since 2006? Or will Baker Mayfield’s career year continue with a postseason victory? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Odds Wild Card Game
Washington vs Tampa Bay, January 12, 8:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | +3 (-115) | +138 | O50.5 (-105) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3 (-105) | -166 | U50.5 (-115) |
Odds as of January 8 at Sportsbook
Commanders vs Buccaneers Picks Wild Card Game
OVER 50.5 Points (-105) at Sportsbook
The Commanders and Buccaneers had the second and third-most improved offenses in the NFL this year from a year-over-year EPA/play standpoint, and they’re well positioned for continued offensive success in a game that profiles as a shootout on Sunday night. Jayden Daniels ranks eighth in EPA+CPOE, and he’s been a massive threat both through the air and on the ground. He’s posted 31 total touchdowns and seems fully recovered from his prior rib injury.
Baker Mayfield has posted a career-high 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, and if not for a league-leading 16 interceptions, he might be garnering more love in MVP discussions. The Commanders’ pass defense has marginally improved but still ranks just 20th in DVOA. Washington will hope to get Marshon Lattimore on the field in this game, which would pit him against longtime nemesis Mike Evans.
I lean towards the Commanders catching 3 points as an underdog, but I’d recommend waiting to see if you can get a better number live. The Buccaneers have scored 6.9 points per game in the first quarter, the most in the NFL, and have 11 scores on first drives, tied for the most. The Bucs are 10-6-1 ATS in the first quarter this year. Keep an eye out for a live number on the Commanders, as a great opportunity could present itself in a high-scoring matchup.
I’ll offer two player props I love in this game below, but if you’re looking for a play on the side or total, I would take the OVER. These teams are a combined 23-11 to the over this season (68%), and I don’t see either defense offering much resistance against its countering high-octane offense.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Prop Picks Wild Card Game
Jayden Daniels OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-120) at Sportsbook
After a phenomenal rookie season, Jayden Daniels is poised to put on a show on Sunday. Of course, his rushing will play a significant role in the Commanders’ offensive approach, but I’m focused on his passing production in this game. The Buccaneers rank sixth in single-high coverage rate (59.3%) and first in Cover 3 (46.7%). Daniels ranks top-eight in completion percentage against both single-high and Cover 3.
The Buccaneers are dealing with significant injuries in the secondary. Bryce Hall, Christian Izien, and Troy Hill are on IR, Jordan Whitehead’s season is over, and Antoine Winfield Jr., Mike Edwards, and Jamel Dean are questionable. This battered pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, allowing the most completions per game (24.6). Expect Daniels to take full advantage in what should be a shootout between two high-octane offenses.
Bucky Irving Longest Rush OVER 16.5 Yards (-120) at Sportsbook
After an outstanding regular season, this playoff game sets up incredibly well for rookie Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers’ back is one of the best big-play threats in the NFL, ranking seventh in explosive rush rate (6.8%) and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.02) per Fantasy Points Data. 55.1% of Irving’s carries have come on man/gap scheme runs, and he’s crushed on those looks, ranking fifth in success rate and second in YPC (6.54).
The Commanders have a dreadful run defense, ranking 26th in DVOA and 29th in adjusted line yards. They’ve been especially poor defending man/gap scheme runs, allowing the most YPC (5.65). Irving has cleared a long run of 17+ yards in five of six games this season with 15+ carries, and he’s expected to see the lion’s share of the carries on Sunday.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 11-6 to the OVER this season.
- The Buccaneers are 12-5 to the OVER this season.
- Since 2003, playoff totals of 50+ are 28-25-2 to the UNDER.
