NFL Upsets of the Week

2024 NFL Upsets Of The Week: Which Favorites Will Fall In The Divisional Round?

We're serving up the NFL upsets of the Divisional Round. The unpredictability of the NFL means that upsets are always on the horizon. In the wide world of NFL betting, analyzing which favored teams are most vulnerable to stumbling should be one of your first exercises each week. Thankfully, Odds Shark is here every week of the NFL season with our greatest NFL upsets of the week.

From under-the-radar matchups to potential shockers, dive into the key games where NFL underdogs could rise and favorites might fall. We live by and the upset and die by the upset in this column. And we're living good lately going 5-3 on our expert picks across our last eight picks, with the Houston Texans coming through for us last week. Let's dive into my NFL Divisional Round upset picks.

NFL Divisional Round Upset Pick #1: Buffalo Bills (+100) vs Baltimore Ravens

It feels like the whole world (barring Bills mafia) will be against the Bills on Sunday. Baltimore trounced Buffalo by a score of 35-10 earlier this season. Plus, the Ravens dominated the Steelers and seem destined to advance. The Ravens offensive and defensive numbers are spectacular. 

However, Buffalo finished second in offensive EPA per play this season, just behind Baltimore. They're also neck-and-neck in defensive EPA throughout the year. 

That being said, it's important to note the Bills played the Ravens without three defensive starters in Week 4, and their defense will be fully healthy for this Divisional Round contest. On top of that, Baltimore could be without the services of top receiver Zay Flowers, and corner Marlon Humphrey was dinged up last week in Pittsburgh. 

I'm betting the Bills defense can limit Derrick Henry in this rematch, and Josh Allen's heroics in the second-half lead them to victory as a home underdog. 

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NFL Divisional Round Upset Pick #2: Washington Commanders +10 (-136) @ Detroit Lions

While the Detroit Lions have been beastly ATS in Jared Goff's tenure, they'll be in tough to cover the spread in the Divisional Round. This line opened with the Lions as 8.5-point favorites and has now moved to 9.5, but we're buying it up to two-scores at +10. 

The betting trends love the Commanders in this spot, and so do I. Since 2003, home teams coming off a bye in the Divisional Round are 33-42-1 ATS. Moreover, as a favorite of 7 or more off a bye, they're 17-24-1 ATS. On top of that, road teams that missed the playoffs the previous year are an unreal 28-14 (66%) ATS in the Divisional Round in the last 20 seasons. 

Crucially, both the Lions and Chiefs are likely to close as favorites of seven or more this weekend. No two favorites of seven or more points have covered the spread in a Divisional Round since 2001. We've seen two favorites close with higher than seven-point spreads in 16 different years in that time, and they've never finished with a 2-0 ATS record. It's far more likely than not either the Chiefs or Lions will fail to cover the spread. I'm backing Jayden Daniels and Washington to come through on Saturday night. 

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