Cowboys vs Browns Odds & Picks Week 1: Cleveland's Defense Will Shine

It's time to break down Cowboys vs Browns odds & picks for Week 1. 

There are certainly issues with the Browns offense, but I'm in love with this defense (especially at home). I expect Myles Garrett and Cleveland's D to have a great game, so I'm taking the UNDER.

Here are my picks and a breakdown for the Cowboys vs Browns Week 1:

Cowboys vs Browns Odds Week 1

Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns, Sept. 8, 4:25 pm ET

Odds as of September 4th, from Caesars Sportsbook

Cowboys vs Browns Picks Week 1

UNDER 41.5 (-114)

I think I'm addicted to betting UNDERs. I wanted to find another way to bet this game, but the UNDER is just so clearly the right play to me.

Let’s start with the Browns defense. While Cleveland’s defense let up more points than you’d think last year, they still ranked out as the league’s best defense by Expected Points Added. Seven times last year the Browns allowed 20 or fewer points against.

But, the Dallas offense also plays into this bet for me in a big way. The Cowboys had the best offense in football by points per game last year (30.1), but that mark dropped to 23.3 on the road (10th-best). This’ll be especially important because the Browns defense was incredible at home, allowing just 13.9 points per game in Cleveland (the lowest at home in the NFL).

This is also a Dallas attack I have a lot of worries with. They lost plenty of talent on the offensive line, will start a 105-year-old Ezekiel Elliott at running back, and the only real offensive weapon, CeeDee Lamb, just started practicing last week. There’s a lot of reason to believe Dallas’ attack will start slow.

The Browns defense also started great last year, with the UNDER 41.5 hitting in four of the first five weeks.

Cowboys vs Browns Prop Pick Week 1

OVER 0.75 Myles Garrett Sacks (-120)

Garrett won the Defensive Player of the Year award last year with another great season. He surpassed 12 sacks for the fourth-straight season and has averaged 0.92 sacks per game over that stretch.

With sacks in nine of his 16 games last year, if you bet this -120 line on a Garrett sack every week, you would’ve been up a half-unit in profit.

I think this matchup against Dallas is a particularly advantageous one for Garrett. The Cowboys ranked 16th in the league with 2.4 sacks against per game last year and their tackle situation entering 2024 is sketchy.

Terence Steele starts at right tackle, after earning a disgusting 50.8 PFF grade last season (and allowed eight sacks). Rookie Tyler Guyton starts at left, playing the first game of his NFL career. Garrett is going to feast on whoever he matches up against.

Pick made as of Wednesday, Sept. 4 at 11:59 am ET

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