Broncos vs Chargers Odds & Picks Week 16: Bet on the TNF Under

Sean Payton's Denver Broncos take on Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers in an all-AFC West Thursday Night Football matchup. With both teams wrestling for playoff seeding, expect to see an all-out war between two teams that have a ton of history. Can Bo Nix revitalize his offensive rookie of the year campaign? Find all the Broncos vs Chargers odds and my best bets below. 

Broncos vs Chargers Odds Week 16

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers, December 19th, 8:15 pm ET

Broncos vs Chargers Week 16 Picks

Under 42.5 

Vance Joseph's defense is the top-rated unit by EPA per play in the NFL since Week 10. Other than an offensive explosion from the Browns earlier this month, the Broncos have been a lockdown unit. Denver has won four straight while allowing just 17.5 points per game. In fact, the Broncos blew out the Colts 31-13 in Week 13 despite totaling just 193 yards on offense. 

While Los Angeles was whalloped by a score of 40-17 against Tampa Bay on Sunday, Jesse Minter's Chargers defense has fantastic this season. Los Angeles' lead the league in points allowed at 17.6 per game. They've also surrendered a touchdown on just 40% of red zone trips, which also leads the league. 

Offensively, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix rank 21st and 26th respectively in EPA per play. They're also each in the bottom-nine in success rate. On top of that, the Chargers have surpassed 30 points just once this season. For all these reasons, I love the Broncos vs Chargers under 42.5 points on Thursday Night Football. 

Keep in mind, the Chargers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against top-10 scoring defenses. 

Broncos vs Chargers Week 16 Props

First Scoring Play - Field Goal +120

I don't see either one of these defenses ceding much ground on TNF. Expect to see both the Broncos and Chargers elite stop units dominate this game. Bet on a field goal to be the first scoring play at plus money. 

Broncos vs Chargers Week 16 Betting Trends