Can Derrick Henry Or Saquon Barkley Win NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP is a quarterback award, we know that. The last 11 MVPs have all been won by passers.

But this year, there are a few running backs trying to change that. With Derrick Henry (+4000) and Saquon Barkley (+10000) pushing up the 2024 NFL MVP odds, I'll break down if either RB has an actual shot to take home the award:

Current NFL MVP Odds - Non-Quarterbacks

While Derrick Henry is the only non-quarterback in the top-15 in current NFL MVP odds, here are all the non-passers who rank close to the top of the current list:

Data from BetMGM as of November 5th, 2024

None of these non-QBs are at the top of current NFL MVP odds — that honor goes to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson tied at +300. But, bettors are starting to buy in on these skill position players. Currently, 2.7% of all MVP tickets are on Henry to win and 1.2% are on Saquon, per BetMGM's data. Henry has more MVP bets than QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold.

So, can they actually win?

Can Derrick Henry Win The MVP?

Derrick Henry opened the season at +30000 to win NFL MVP and has moved all the way up to +4000 at BetMGM.

The Baltimore running back currently leads football in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards per game, and scrimmage yards — basically every stat it's plausible a RB could lead in. But, even with all that production, he still ranks just 13th in NFL MVP odds, speaking to how difficult it is for a RB to win this award.

Henry has put up this kind of season before, in 2020. That year, he had over 2,000 rushing yards, led the NFL with 17 touchdowns, and still didn't get a SINGLE VOTE for the MVP award that season.

It may help Henry this season that no QB is having the 48-touchdown, 5-interception performance that Aaron Rodgers balled out in 2020, preventing anyone else from challenging for MVP. But, even still, Henry is competing against strong seasons from Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who currently lead the MVP odds.

If Henry really wants a chance to win this year, I think he'll need to easily break 2,000 yards, get close to 20 touchdowns, and have neither Lamar nor Allen have a particularly dominant second half of the season. It's a big ask for the big man — but he's doing all he can to make it happen.

At +4000 odds (implying a 2.44% chance Henry wins), I don't hate a bet on the king to become MVP. Maybe his actual chances are closer to 5%, which provides you with some line value.

Can Saquon Barkley Win The MVP?

I've seen some people online arguing Barkley is also in the MVP conversation, but honestly, I don't see it. He's basically just a worse version of Henry, playing on a worse team and with a significant injury risk always hanging over his head. Sure, Saquon could get close to 2,000 rushing yards and has the flashy hurdles on his side. But, his totals this season will probably end up close to Christian McCaffrey's 2023 campaign (at most) which didn't earn a single first-place MVP vote.

If you want to bet on Barkley, look at Offensive Player of the Year odds. The MVP isn't his to win.

Can Non-QBs Win The NFL MVP?

We've had four non-quarterbacks win the NFL MVP this century. All four were running backs:

• 2000 Marshall Faulk (Rams)
• 2005 Shaun Alexander (Seahawks)
• 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers)
• 2012 Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

But, as you'll notice, we haven't had a non-QB win the award in 12 seasons. The NFL has become a pass-first league, and quarterbacks are dominating the NFL MVP voting because of it. Christian McCaffrey led football in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage last year, adding 21 total touchdowns. He finished just third in MVP voting and didn't get a single first-place vote. For guys like Henry and Saquon to win, they need to have incredible offensive seasons AND no quarterback really ball out — a hard combination to pull off.