The Miami Dolphins travel to chilly Green Bay, Wisconsin as 3.5 point underdogs to take on the Packers in a Week 13 Thanksgiving Day game with major playoff implications. Oddsmakers set the total in this one at 47.5.
Miami has won its last three games and its fans are keeping the playoff hopes alive. The Dolphins currently sit one game behind the Broncos in the loss column for the last AFC Wild Card Spot. The Dolphins still play the Jets twice and the Browns once, so a win on Thanksgiving sets them up nicely for a strong finish to the regular season.
The Packers have won six of their last seven games and are firmly holding onto a wild card spot in the NFC.
Keep reading to see why I think the Dolphins will put up a good fight in this one. To read our NFL Thanksgiving trends article, click here.
Dolphins vs Packers Odds Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers, Nov. 28, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +3.5 (-120) | +144 | O 47.5 (-105) |
| Green Bay Packers | -3.5 (-102) | -172 | U 47.5 (-115) |
As of November 23 at FanDuel
Dolphins vs Packers Picks Week 13
Dolphins +3.5 (-120)
I was able to get a better number (-110) on this Sunday Night and posted it in our Expert Pick Section, but I don't want to give out a stale number as many books have moved the Dolphins to +3. FanDuel is still offering the hook with -120 juice and I still like it at that number.
The Dolphins offense is averaging 29 points per game over the last five contests (since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned) and I like how they're patiently picking apart defenses. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is best buds with 49ers' coach Kyle Shanahan and you can imagine they'll be sharing a phone call before this game as the 49ers just dropped their game to the Packers.
The Packers rank 30th in the NFL at defending tight ends according to FTNFantasy.com and Dolphins tight end Jonu Smith has caught 15 passes for 188 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games.
Green Bay's offensive line is used to bullying people, but Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler have been playing really well and should help neutralize that Packers strength.
It'll be near impossible for Packers receiver Romeo Doubs to recover from his concussion in time to play Thursday so that's great news for the Dolphins secondary.
Dolphins vs. Packers Player Props
Jonnu Smith O42.5 rec. yards (-110)
Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith is becoming a much bigger part of the Dolphins offense as defenses are allowing the Dolphins to pick them apart underneath instead of over the top. Smith is the beneficiary and he's racked up 188 yards on 15 catches and three touchdowns over his last two games.
The Packers are the 30th best team in the NFL when it comes to defending tight ends according to FTNFantasy.com and Smith has to love this matchup.
Dolphins vs. Packers News
The weather is always the big news this time of year in Lambeau Field, especially vs. a warm weather team like Miami. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games played in 40 degrees or less according to Pro Football Talk. Tua said Sunday at his press conference, "I'm excited to kill narratives. Let's go. Bring it on." So far the chance of precipitation is low (15%) but temperatures are expected to be around 32 degrees.
Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion in Sunday's win over the 49ers and head coach Matt LaFleur stated after the game, "If we don't have him, that's a big loss." It's virtually impossible for Doubs to clear concussion protocol this week with such a short timeline to Thursday.
Dolphins vs Packers Betting Trends
- Josh Jacobs has gone over .5 touchdowns in four his last five games
- Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
- Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Green Bay
- Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay's last 12 games against Miami
