Thanksgiving and NFL action go together like peanut butter and jelly. The NFL has had some iconic moments on Turkey Day over the years as we're enjoying our food, and we're all eager to see what the 2024 slate has in store for us.
As you look forward to stuffing your face, and hopefully your bankroll, here are some Thanksgiving Day NFL trends to be aware of. I don't want you hoping for a +400 dog to cash while you're passing the stuffing because you didn't see that double-digit favorites are 10-2 ATS since 2005.
Favorites are 49-10 SU and 39-20 ATS since 2003
Favorites tend to cover the spread on Thanksgiving recently, despite the Dallas Cowboys bad track record ATS as Turkey Day favorites (7-10 since 2003). We'll chat more about Dem Boys later.
Last season, favorites were 2-1 ATS as the 49ers (-7 vs. Seattle) and Cowboys (-13 vs. Commanders) both covered the number while Detroit (-8.5) lost outright to the Packers.
This trend bodes well, for Green Bay and Detroit who are laying points on Thursday, but Dallas' recent history might give you some pause on laying four points vs. the Giants.
Dallas is 2-11 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011
Historically, it's been profitable to fade the Cowboys against the point spread on Thanksgiving.
Dallas did cover the spread (-13) last season vs. Washington with a dominant 45-10 win, but it's still just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five Thanksgiving games. Dallas beat the Giants 28-20 in their last Thanksgiving matchup in 2022.
This year, Dallas will need a big game from Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb if they want to cover the number vs. the Giants. Click here for our best bets from the Cowboys vs. Giants game.
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | +4 (-110) | +165 | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | -4 (-110) | -200 | U 37.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 26 via BetMGM
10+ Point Thanksgiving Favorites are 15-4 ATS since 1980
While sharp bettors often prefer underdogs with point spreads of more than 10 points, it's important to know that big favorites have been the smart bet ATS on Thanksgiving.
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | +10 (-105) | +400 | O 48.5 (-115) |
| Detroit Lions | -10 (-115) | -550 | U 48.5 (-115) |
As of November 26 at BetMGM
Double-digit favorites are also 10-2 ATS since 2005 and that's relevant for the Lions this year who are laying 11 points while hosting the Bears. Click here to read our full analysis of the Bears vs. Lions game.
But before you go punching that Lions ticket, remember Detroit was a -8.5-point favorite last season vs. the Packers and lost outright. Last season's Lions loss was the biggest Thanksgiving Day upset since 1993 when the Dolphins (+10) beat the Cowboys in the infamous Leon Lett game.
The trend below also suggests caution with the Lions Thursday.
Dan Campbell's Lions are 0-3 SU on Thanksgiving
The Lions haven't won a game on Thanksgiving in the Dan Campbell era. To their credit, however, they are 2-1 ATS in those games after covering a +2.5 spread vs. the Bears in 2021 and a +9.5 spread vs. Buffalo in 2022.
If the Lions are to avoid a shocking loss like last season's 29-22 defeat to the Packers, they'll need a big game from Jared Goff. Goff has thrown for 743 yards and six touchdowns (zero interceptions) on 73-of-96 passing in three Thanksgiving games with the Lions.
Rookie quarterbacks are 4-6 SU on Thanksgiving
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will be the 11th quarterback to start a Thanksgiving game and those before him have had mixed results.
If Williams wants a little inspiration he can look toward Dak Prescott who led Dallas to a 31-26 win over Washington as he threw for 195 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions his rookie year (2016).
Bears 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2015
While they've had mixed results covering the number, Chicago has been a good moneyline bet on Turkey Day recently.
The Bears are 3-0 vs. the Lions on Thanksgiving recently with wins in 2018, 2019, and 2021. The Bears also beat the Packers in 2015 when Jay Cutler and Matt Forte spoiled Aaron Rodgers's party with a 17-13 win.
Dolphins are 5-2 SU on Thanksgiving
This may surprise you, but of the six teams playing on Thanksgiving in 2024, it's the Dolphins who have the best winning percentage on Thanksgiving. Of all NFL teams who have played at least three Thanksgiving Day games, the Eagles are on top with a .857 win percentage (6-1).
Below is the Thanksgiving winning percentage for all six teams who play on Turkey Day in 2024:
- Miami Dolphins 5-2 (.714)
- Dallas Cowboys 33-22-1 (.598)
- Chicago Bears 20-15-2 (.594)
- New York Giants 7-6-3 (.531)
- Detroit Lions 37-45-2 (.452)
- Green Bay Packers 15-20-2 (.432)
Miami hasn't played a Thanksgiving game since 2011 (20-19 loss vs. Dallas) so a win vs. the Packers would be its first Thanksgiving victory since 2006 (20-7 vs. Detroit).
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +3 (+100) | +145 | O 47 (-110) |
| Green Bay Packers | -3 (-120) | -175 | U 47 (-110) |
As of November 26 at BetMGM
Click here for our full analysis of the Dolphins vs. Packers game.
Favorites in Thanksgiving Night games are 13-4 ATS
Since the NFL added a night game to our Thanksgiving plates in 2006, favorites have dominated in this spot with a very profitable 13-4 ATS mark.
This trend points to the Packers on Thursday and so does this one: Tua Tagovailoa teams are 0-7 in games with temperatures of 40 degrees or less according to Pro Football Talk. Tagovailoa, who grew up in Hawaii, will have to brave temperatures around 30 degrees on Thursday.
Other notable Thanksgiving Trends
Below are some additional Thanksgiving trends to be aware of before you place any bets on Thursday's action:
- Detroit is 4-1 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving since 2004
- 2001 was the last time Dallas and Detroit went 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving (parlay bettors beware)
- Since 1990, 7+ point favorites are 25-9 ATS
- The OVER is 8-4 in the Lions' last dozen Thanksgiving games
