News broke on Wednesday evening that the ailing Atlanta Falcons had finally made the decision to bench Kirk Cousins for rookie pivot Michael Penix Jr.
But, have Raheem Morris and the Falcons staff made the right decision this late in the season? And how many games could Penix win based on recent quarterbacking history?
Falcons Bench $100M Cousins
Handing a 36-year-old quarterback recovering from a torn Achilles a four-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed was always a perplexing move. Drafting a quarterback with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft made the move all the more confusing.
However, the Falcons aimed to follow the model of other successful teams of the past decade, and pair a solid starting quarterback with his successor. The success of the Kansas City Chiefs in transitioning from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, and Green Bay Packers from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love is reason enough to take a swing. Unfortunately, even the best laid plans can change quickly in the NFL.
Starting Penix Jr. this early was never the intention of the Falcons, but Cousins play over the past month necessitated a move. He's thrown for just one touchdown and nine interceptions in the past five games while taking 11 sacks.
KIRK COUSINS TOSSES HIS 4TH INT OF THE GAME 😳
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 1, 2024
CHARGERS SEAL THE WIN.
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/gdTiq6edrG
Atlanta has gone just 1-4 SU in those games, and now sits at 7-7 SU and 5-8-1 ATS on the year and outside the NFC playoff picture.
Luckily for Atlanta, the Falcons have frontloaded the contract. Cousins will take home $62.5 million in cash this year, and has $27.5M guaranteed on his deal for 2025. That being said, owner Arthur Blank won't be happy to be paying $100M for 10 medicore starts from "Kirko Bangz".
Have Rookie QBs Covered the Spread When the Starter is Benched?
Multiple teams have made late season changes to rookie quarterbacks in recent NFL history. With some of the most famous, like Patrick Mahomes, being prudent moves.
Mahomes started in Week 17 against the Denver Broncos way back in his rookie campaign, leading the Chiefs to a 27-24 win as 3.5-point underdogs. The following year, Baltimore Ravens rookie pivot Lamar Jackson took over for incumbent Joe Flacco and went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS.
This season, rookie signal-callers Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix have started from the jump. With mixed results both on the field, and on the betting board. The Bears, Commanders and Broncos have combined to go 22-20 SU and a stellar 25-14-3 ATS with Daniels and Nix doing most of the heavy lifting.
Perhaps the closest comparison for Penix is New England Patriots starter Drake Maye, who took over for Jacoby Brissett. In the eight games that Maye has started and finished, the Pats are 1-7 both SU and ATS.
Clearly, the Falcons will be hoping Penix follows the path of the former camp rather than the latter. He certainly can't fare worse than the sluggish, noodle-armed Cousins.
How to Bet on the Atlanta Falcons With Penix Jr. Under Center
Atlanta's decision to start their rookie quarterback has created a massive line movement on the NFL odds board. Incredibly, the Falcons moved from 4.5-point favorites to 8.5-point favorites with the news. At some books, the line moved from Atlanta as 6-point to 10-point favs. Meaning sportsbooks believe Michael Penix Jr. is worth a wild 4-point swing! That's monumental movement, considering the fact that books moved the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs from 1.5-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites with Patrick Mahomes trending towards playing in Week 16 - also a 4-point swing.
Remember, Penix lit up the college football world in 2023, tossing for 4903 yards and 36 touchdowns in Washington's spread attack. Additionally, he'll have weapons in Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson at his disposal. However, four points is a heck of swing for a quarterback who has thrown just four passes at the NFL level. I recommend fading the Falcons as 10-point favorites against the New York Giants in Week 16 at -126 odds.
A reminder of what Michael Penix Jr is capable of pic.twitter.com/JAehE6Xchh
— Rise Up Penix (@RiseUpReader) December 18, 2024
History, and recent ATS rookie quarterback betting trends signify that Morris and the Falcons have made the right move in turning to Penix Jr. Now, there is plenty of value to be found when betting on Atlanta through the rest of the season. The Falcons are currently 4.5-point underdogs against the Washington Commanders in a showdown of rookie quarterbacks on Sunday Night Football in Week 17. I like the value on Atlanta to cover the spread. There are currently no lines for the Falcons Week 18 game against the Panthers. But, keep an eye out for Atlanta as possible home underdogs against an inconsistent Carolina squad.
