It sure seems like the Bears will draft Caleb Williams this offseason, and Justin Fields trade odds seem to agree.
But, as NFL free agency has started, the potential destinations for Fields are falling off the board. Oddsmakers haven't released updated odds since the Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and other top QB names have found new homes. But, I'm still going to try to find the best fit for Fields, as of now:
Justin Fields Trade Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons (signed Cousins) | -425 |
| Chicago Bears | +250 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (signed Wilson) | +450 |
| Las Vegas Raiders (signed Minshew) | +1200 |
| New York Giants | +1800 |
| New England Patriots | +2200 |
| Denver Broncos | +4000 |
Odds from a top sportsbook as of March 1st
The Atlanta Falcons were heavily favored to trade for Fields, but after signing Kirk Cousins to a massive free agent contract the fit is no longer there.
Of the other top teams on the oddsboard as of a week ago, the odds suggest he may be staying in Chicago. I actually think that's a real shot too. If the Bears are going to get just a 5th or 6th-round pick for the QB, it does make sense to just hold onto him as one of the best backups in the league and maybe a better suitor pops up in the preseason or into the 2024-25 campaign.
Is Justin Fields Even Good?
Here's what makes the Bears' decision to keep Fields or draft Williams so hard: Fields is decent. He may not be the best QB in the league, but he's been usable the last two seasons and shown improvement every year in the league.
I think the Bears should reset the QB clock and take the upside risk on Williams, but whatever team lands Fields will be justified in taking that risk, too.
| Year | Cmp% | TD | INT | pYards | rYards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61.4% | 16 | 9 | 2562 | 657 |
| 2022 | 60.4% | 17 | 11 | 2242 | 1143 |
| 2021 | 58.9% | 7 | 10 | 1870 | 657 |
Fields Next Team Pick: Cleveland Browns
The Browns were +13,000 underdogs to land Justin Fields before free agency opened, and there's a bit of smoke there. A few days ago, ESPN's Seth Walder floated the idea of the Browns trading for Fields, giving up on DeShaun Watson. It certainly seems like a pipe dream, but I think Walder is on to something.
Watson hasn't proven he can play at an NFL level anymore, and the rest of the Cleveland team around him is already playoff caliber. If Cleveland can snag Fields for a third-round pick, why not take the shot.
