The headliner of this year's NFL free agency is Captain Kirk, and Cousins' next team odds suggest he may be the new face of Atlanta's offense.
The veteran QB is due for a big pay-day wherever he ends up, so I'm going to break down Cousins' free agency odds and where I think he'll actually get that bag of cash:
Kirk Cousins Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | -225 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +1000 |
| Denver Broncos | +1500 |
| New England Patriots | +1500 |
Odds from a top sportsbook
Cousins to Atlanta makes so much sense.
The Falcons have all the offensive talent in the world (Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London) and nobody to get the ball to them. New coach Raheem Morris has made it clear they're going to go out and get a new QB this year, and they've got ~40 million in cap space to make Kirk Cousins that guy.
I'm not sure if adding Cousins will boost the Falcons to the top of Super Bowl odds, but it'll certainly make Atlanta the favorites in a weak NFC South.
Kirk Cousins Recent Seasons
Cousins is the best free agent quarterback in this market, and maybe the best QB commodity available this offseason behind presumptive top draft pick Caleb Williams.
I honestly think we've gotten to the point where Captain Kirk is somehow underrated. Before he got hurt last year, he was on pace for his third-straight season of 4000+ passing yards, solid efficiency, and over 29 touchdowns. That's a top-15 QB no doubt, and maybe top-10.
| Year | Cmp% | TD | INT | pYards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (8 GP) | 69.5% | 18 | 5 | 2,331 |
| 2022 | 65.9% | 29 | 14 | 4,547 |
| 2021 | 66.3% | 33 | 7 | 4,221 |
Cousins Next Team Value Pick: Vikings
While the odds have Atlanta as pretty clear favorites to sign Cousins, I do think there's a good chance he stays in Minny. I already outlined why I think Russell Wilson is a good fit for the Vikings, but Cousins brings everything Wilson does (but better) alongside more familiarity.
When healthy, he's helped Minnesota to multiple playoff appearances and gotten the most out of a great receiver unit. However, after releasing Dalvin Cook last year and potentially losing top defender Danielle Hunter this offseason, the Vikings may be entering a bit of a re-tool. If they choose to commit to the next window, Minnesota will probably let Cousins walk.
If you want a real long shot, the 49ers have long liked Cousins so I don't hate a +2200 shot on them to shockingly move past Brock Purdy.
