The Chiefs may be 4-0, but they haven't won a game by more than a possession yet this season and they're pretty banged up on offense (with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isaiah Pacheco hurt). I'll bet on a Saints team that is 2-2, but still has a +57 point differential and the best net EPA in football.
I've got a big-payout parlay, banking on a Saints upset in this one. The Chiefs have a great rushing defense, so this upset parlay is looking at a big passing day for New Orleans:
- Saints ML (+200)
- Derek Carr O225 Passing Yards (+120)
- Chris Olave O50 Rec Yards (-170)
A lot of playmakers in New Orleans. Some of these teams would kill to have just one game-changing athlete -- Saints have several, even if the quarterback Derek Carr never inspires a ton of confidence, at least with me.
They are not playing Kansas City with its full complement of players -- not even close.
When I put all the factors together, it's enough for me to fade the Chiefs at Arrowhead in primetime.
K.C. knows how to win close games. I think this one is close, so I'll take the Saints +5.5
The Saints have quietly been one of the NFL's best redzone defenses this season and the Chiefs are without 2 of their best redzone targets (Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco).
I'm expecting the Chiefs to have a couple drives stall in the redzone in this one and that should help Butker rack up some points.
Bet placed 4:36 pm ET on Saturday, October 5.
The Saints offense reminds me of a bully who can beat up a weaker opponents but when looks bad vs. a quality opponent.
The Saints offense looked bad vs. Eagles DC Vic Fangio because he has a brilliant defensive mind who can stand toe-to-toe with the Saints. Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnolu is another brilliant mind who should be able to exploit these Saints.
New Orleans will be without several important cast members including Taysom Hill, Cesar Ruiz, Willie Gay, and Ruiz's backup Shane Lemieux.
Bet placed at 1:05 am ET on Monday, October 7.
Monday, October 7 Mon Oct 7
Player Props
Player Props
- Derek Carr(NO) POS: QBPropCompletionsProjection21.7
- Patrick Mahomes II(KC) POS: QBPropCompletionsProjection22.4
Edge Finder
34.33 | Points Scored | 25.00 |
|---|---|---|
190.33 | Passing Yards | 211.67 |
153.00 | Rushing Yards | 116.33 |
31:38 | Time on Field | 29:55 |
57.67 | Number of Plays | 60.33 |
5.95 | Yards Per Play | 5.44 |
Head To Head
| NO | Stat Type | KC |
|---|---|---|
2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
3-2-1 | ATS | 2-3-1 |
2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
24.00 | Points Scored | 25.17 |
97.83 | Rush Yds | 174.00 |
35.00 | Pass Attempts | 34.17 |
- | Completion % | - |
240.67 | Passing Yds | 201.00 |
338.5 | Total Yds | 375 |
1.83 | Turnovers | 1.50 |
Team Records
| NO | Record | KC |
|---|---|---|
2-2 | All | 4-0 |
1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
3-1 | ATS | 2-1-1 |
1-1 | ATS Home | 1-1 |
2-0 | ATS Away | 1-0-1 |
3-1 | O/U | 2-2 |
1-1 | O/U Home | 2-0 |
2-0 | O/U Away | 0-2 |
Gametime Weather
4mph
Trends
- New Orleans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games.
- New Orleans are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
- New Orleans are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Kansas City.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans' last 7 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans' last 9 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
- New Orleans are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games played in October.
- New Orleans are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played in week 5.
- New Orleans are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday.
Injuries
| Name | Position | Inj Desc |
|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | LB | Is upgraded to probable Monday vs Kansas City, Hamstring |
| Tyrann Mathieu | S | Is upgraded to probable Monday vs Kansas City, Groin |
| Lucas Patrick | G | Is "?" Monday vs Kansas City, Groin |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | Is probable Monday vs Kansas City, Hip |
| Taysom Hill | QB | Is downgraded to OUT Monday vs Kansas City, Abdominal |
| Erik McCoy | C | IR, Groin |
| Khalen Saunders | DT | Is out indefinitely, Calf |
| Cesar Ruiz | C | Is downgraded to OUT Monday vs Kansas City, Knee |
| Justin Herron | G | IR, Knee |
| Shane Lemieux | G | Is OUT Monday vs Kansas City, Ankle |
| Payton Turner | DE | Is OUT Monday vs Kansas City, Knee |
| Pete Werner | LB | Is downgraded to OUT Monday vs Kansas City, Hamstring |
| Kendre Miller | RB | Is doubtful Monday vs Kansas City, Hamstring |
| Rejzohn Wright | CB | IR, Undisclosed |
Last 10 Games
| Date | Opp | Score | SU | Line/Total | ATS | OFF. RUSH | OFF. PASS | OFF. TOTAL | DEF. RUSH | DEF. PASS | DEF. TOTAL | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | ATL | 24-26 | L | +2.5/42.5 | W/O | 131 | 235 | 366 | 88 | 227 | 315 | 1 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | PHI | 12-15 | L | -2.5/49 | L/U | 89 | 130 | 219 | 172 | 288 | 460 | -1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | DAL | 44-19 | W | +6.5/47 | W/O | 190 | 242 | 432 | 68 | 285 | 353 | -1 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | CAR | 47-10 | W | -3.5/41.5 | W/O | 180 | 199 | 379 | 58 | 135 | 193 | -2 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ATL | 48-17 | W | -3/41.5 | W/O | 154 | 246 | 400 | 78 | 311 | 389 | -3 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | TB | 23-13 | W | +2.5/42.5 | W/U | 108 | 202 | 310 | 57 | 292 | 349 | -4 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | LAR | 22-30 | L | +4/45.5 | L/O | 35 | 304 | 339 | 133 | 325 | 458 | 1 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | NYG | 24-6 | W | -6/39.5 | W/U | 87 | 209 | 296 | 60 | 133 | 193 | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2023 | CAR | 28-6 | W | -5.5/39 | W/U | 97 | 110 | 207 | 204 | 99 | 303 | -1 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | DET | 28-33 | L | +4/48 | L/O | 113 | 249 | 362 | 142 | 205 | 347 | 2 |
