NFL Survivor Pool Picks 2024 Week 18: Secure Your Win With Tampa Bay

If you're reading this, it probably means you made it. Week 18, the final week of your NFL Survivor Pool is here and this article will give you plenty to think about as you make your final decision. Congrats on making it to the end and best of luck this week! As those who trusted the Colts last week vs. the Giants were reminded, there's no fool proof pick in the NFL.

Keep reading for an overview of the week and at the bottom of this article, you'll find several tips for outlasting the competition in your survivor pool.

NFL Survivor Pool Week 18 recap

Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 18 based on moneylines from FanDuel (as of December 31) converted with our Odds Calculator:

Baltimore is such a massive favorite that it's tough to pass them up if you have them available in your pool. That said, most people have probably burned them up by now so we'll focus our attention on more realistic options.

Remember to keep in mind what options your opponents have left. For instance, if you're in a pool with 10 people left and 8 have the Ravens available and only one other person has the Broncos left, I'd take the Broncos because you'll have a shot at knocking out 8 people and (if the other person with Denver doesn't take them) winning it all.

Denver is an interesting option this week because they have a lot to play for (a playoff berth) and the Chiefs are expected to rest starters before the playoffs. Fading Carson Wentz seems like a great move and if you're lucky enough to have Denver left, you're feeling pretty good. 

The Falcons will be very popular in a lot of survivor pools this week as they face the Panthers who are improved, but also looked awful last week vs. Tampa Bay. Without Chuba Hubbard, I wouldn't be worried about a Panthers upset. 

The Chargers are a dicey pick because they may have nothing to play for if the Steelers beat Cincinnati. 

Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool: The Pick

Buccaneers vs. Saints

Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five touchdowns last week. That's pretty good. I think Baker makes another statement in this game and sends his team to the playoffs.

The Saints put two offensive lineman on IR last week and made the decision to sit wide receiver Chris Olave, even though he practiced in full. Moves like this make you wonder if the front office would prefer the team lose going into April's draft. The Bucs are the healthier team, with more motivation and I can't imagine a scenario where the Saints pull out the win.

If you don't have Tampa Bay or Baltimore available, then grab the Falcons who have a lot to play for as well in Week 18.

If you're about to win a substantial amount of money in your pool, remember you can place a hedge bet on the other side of your pool pick to create a win-win scenario. For instance, if your survivor pool has two people left and you'll at least $10,000 if the Falcons win, then a $1000 moneyline bet on the Panthers (+340) winning $3,400 is worth considering. 

Check out the table below where we will keep track of the teams as we pick them. We will mark picks we got wrong with an X, picks we got right with a ✔ and a pending pick with an O.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks

General NFL Survivor Pool Strategy

Know Your Pool’s rules

It’s important to know the rules of your pool before you make any selections. Don’t be the person scrambling to see how your pool handles ties while the team you selected is in the middle of an overtime thriller.

Every pool is different — Chris from accounting or whoever set up your pool might have a couple of weird rules thrown in that you need to know. Some pools allow buybacks after a loss (most don’t) and some go through the playoffs while others end after the regular season. Some survivor pools use point spreads, while most others just require a win to advance. Some larger pools consider holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas a separate week. Survivor pools require strategy, so don’t start strategizing until you fully understand your pool’s rules.

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Size Matters

The size of your pool should impact your strategy. Small pools with just a few friends don’t typically last as long, so a more conservative approach is often best. But if you’re in a huge office pool or large online pool, you need to take more chances and be thinking long-term if you want to win it all.

Zig while they zag

You don’t want to be on the most popular team each week. If an upset of the team everyone is picking occurs, you want to be away from the carnage and root for a different team. Sure, that often means taking on a little more risk and passing up a heavy favorite for a more moderate one, but this is the correct mindset to win your survivor pool. A lot of public survivor pool websites publish the selection percentages each week, so this can give you a rough idea of how people in your pool might be picking.

Conserve Good Teams

This is especially relevant when in a larger pool. It can be tempting to burn through a few of the best teams early in the season “just to survive,” but you will be looking at the list of teams available to you in Week 14 and sweating it out when you have to pick between the Bears and Titans to win a game. If you can make it through the first part of the year without burning some of the top teams, the payoff could be huge when you’ve got some big guns left in December.

Pick on bad teams

While you can’t select a team more than once, there’s nothing stopping you from picking on a bad team over and over. Of course, each team has a bye week and plays three division opponents twice, so you can’t fade the same team all 18 weeks, but picking average teams to beat really bad teams is often a great strategy. This season, teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers might be the teams to target. 

Create a road map, but be flexible

Before the season starts, look at the entire NFL schedule with the help of a grid, like the one found at Survivorgrid.com. A grid helps you stay ahead of things and map out a path to the finish line. Toying around with different paths will help you see which weeks are slim pickings and which teams have strong future value and might be worth saving for later.

While creating a path is useful, it’s important to be flexible when things like injuries or coaching changes happen. A team you thought would be terrible might get hot (like the Texans last season) and cause you to rethink your entire plan. Likewise, a team people expected to perform well might lose their starting QB in Week 1 (like the Jets last season) and force you to pull that team off your board.

Utilize multiple entries

If your pool allows multiple entries, that opens the door for even more strategies to consider. For instance, if you have two entries left during the final week, you could select two teams playing in the same game and essentially guarantee (unless there’s a tie) that one of your entries crosses the finish line. Toward the end of a pool, multiple entries can be thought of as chips at a poker table where the chip leader has an advantage because they have more entries and can take more risks without the fear of losing it all.

Identify landmines

There’s always a small handful of NFL games each season when a double-digit underdog wins and leaves survivor pool players speechless. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals' upset of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 is a prime example. If you can avoid these massive upsets, you’ll be in good shape. Make a list of games that you think others in your pool will be attracted to that you want to avoid because you see upset potential.

Beware of bad weather

A sloppy field can sometimes be the great equalizer between a good team and a bad team. For instance, in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and the Chicago Bears finished 4-13. However, when the teams met in Week 1, the Bears were victorious thanks in part to the sloppy field conditions at Soldier Field.

Think twice before selecting a big favorite in whacky weather conditions.