NFL Survivor Pool Picks 2024 Week 12: Trust The Dolphins

Survivor pools have quickly become one of the most entertaining ways to bet on the NFL season, but winning them requires a lot of strategy.

Picking one winner each week is harder than it sounds, especially as the season rolls on. That's where this page comes in. Throughout the NFL season, I'll be updating this page with my selection each week and I'll include my rationale for why I chose each team. Whether you decide to tail my selection or not, I'll give you some angles to consider each week before making your selection.

Through 11 weeks, NFL Survivor Pools have been absolutely bonkers this year due to the large number of underdogs winning in the NFL so far. It's been carnage and there are smaller pools that ended after just three weeks. If you've made it this far in your survivor pool and you're still alive -- Congrats!

At the bottom of this article, you'll find several tips for outlasting the competition in your survivor pool.

NFL Survivor Pool Week 11 recap

Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 12 based on moneylines from BetMGM (as of November 20) converted with our Odds Calculator:

The Chiefs are certainly tempting in this spot vs. the Panthers, but Kansas City is a valuable chess piece moving forward. The Chiefs still have games vs. the Raiders and Browns so keep that in mind if you pull the trigger on them in this spot.

The Commanders are a great option and I think former Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn will get some revenge in this spot, but I already used the Commanders successfully in Week 7. If you still have the Commanders left, then this is a nice spot for them.

The Lions and Texans are in decent spots here, but their opponents (Colts and Titans) have been feisty the past couple weeks so it's possible those teams are improving. 

Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool: The Pick

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

The Dolphins offense is starting to get hot and guys in that locker room believe that, despite their slow start, they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. I'm expecting an all-in effort from the Dolphins vs. a Patriots team that is rebuilding and, at least long-term, would be better off losing this game.

The Dolphins are at home in their stadium which has historically given the Patriots fits. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had his best start of the season last week as he tossed three touchdowns for 288 yards on 28-of-36 passing.

Yes, Drake Maye is improving but he still leads the NFL in turnover worthy throws and doesn't have many legit weapons around him.

The Dolphins still have two games vs. the Jets and one vs. the Browns on tap, but this is by far the best spot to use them. 

Check out the table below where we will keep track of the teams as we pick them. We will mark picks we got wrong with an X, picks we got right with a ✔ and a pending pick with an O.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks

General NFL Survivor Pool Strategy

Know Your Pool’s rules

It’s important to know the rules of your pool before you make any selections. Don’t be the person scrambling to see how your pool handles ties while the team you selected is in the middle of an overtime thriller.

Every pool is different — Chris from accounting or whoever set up your pool might have a couple of weird rules thrown in that you need to know. Some pools allow buybacks after a loss (most don’t) and some go through the playoffs while others end after the regular season. Some survivor pools use point spreads, while most others just require a win to advance. Some larger pools consider holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas a separate week. Survivor pools require strategy, so don’t start strategizing until you fully understand your pool’s rules.

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Size Matters

The size of your pool should impact your strategy. Small pools with just a few friends don’t typically last as long, so a more conservative approach is often best. But if you’re in a huge office pool or large online pool, you need to take more chances and be thinking long-term if you want to win it all.

Zig while they zag

You don’t want to be on the most popular team each week. If an upset of the team everyone is picking occurs, you want to be away from the carnage and root for a different team. Sure, that often means taking on a little more risk and passing up a heavy favorite for a more moderate one, but this is the correct mindset to win your survivor pool. A lot of public survivor pool websites publish the selection percentages each week, so this can give you a rough idea of how people in your pool might be picking.

Conserve Good Teams

This is especially relevant when in a larger pool. It can be tempting to burn through a few of the best teams early in the season “just to survive,” but you will be looking at the list of teams available to you in Week 14 and sweating it out when you have to pick between the Bears and Titans to win a game. If you can make it through the first part of the year without burning some of the top teams, the payoff could be huge when you’ve got some big guns left in December.

Pick on bad teams

While you can’t select a team more than once, there’s nothing stopping you from picking on a bad team over and over. Of course, each team has a bye week and plays three division opponents twice, so you can’t fade the same team all 18 weeks, but picking average teams to beat really bad teams is often a great strategy. This season, teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers might be the teams to target. 

Create a road map, but be flexible

Before the season starts, look at the entire NFL schedule with the help of a grid, like the one found at Survivorgrid.com. A grid helps you stay ahead of things and map out a path to the finish line. Toying around with different paths will help you see which weeks are slim pickings and which teams have strong future value and might be worth saving for later.

While creating a path is useful, it’s important to be flexible when things like injuries or coaching changes happen. A team you thought would be terrible might get hot (like the Texans last season) and cause you to rethink your entire plan. Likewise, a team people expected to perform well might lose their starting QB in Week 1 (like the Jets last season) and force you to pull that team off your board.

Utilize multiple entries

If your pool allows multiple entries, that opens the door for even more strategies to consider. For instance, if you have two entries left during the final week, you could select two teams playing in the same game and essentially guarantee (unless there’s a tie) that one of your entries crosses the finish line. Toward the end of a pool, multiple entries can be thought of as chips at a poker table where the chip leader has an advantage because they have more entries and can take more risks without the fear of losing it all.

Identify landmines

There’s always a small handful of NFL games each season when a double-digit underdog wins and leaves survivor pool players speechless. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals' upset of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 is a prime example. If you can avoid these massive upsets, you’ll be in good shape. Make a list of games that you think others in your pool will be attracted to that you want to avoid because you see upset potential.

Beware of bad weather

A sloppy field can sometimes be the great equalizer between a good team and a bad team. For instance, in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and the Chicago Bears finished 4-13. However, when the teams met in Week 1, the Bears were victorious thanks in part to the sloppy field conditions at Soldier Field.

Think twice before selecting a big favorite in whacky weather conditions.