NFL Survivor Pool Picks 2024 Week 16: Trust Packers In the Cold

Survivor pools have quickly become one of the most entertaining ways to bet on the NFL season, but winning them requires a lot of strategy.

Picking one winner each week is harder than it sounds, especially as the season rolls on. That's where this page comes in. Throughout the NFL season, I'll be updating this page with my selection each week and I'll include my rationale for why I chose each team. Whether you decide to tail my selection or not, I'll give you some angles to consider each week before making your selection.

Through 15 weeks, NFL Survivor Pools have been thrilling this year due to the large number of underdogs winning in the NFL so far. It's been carnage and there are smaller pools that ended after just three weeks. If you've made it this far in your survivor pool and you're still alive -- Congrats!

At the bottom of this article, you'll find several tips for outlasting the competition in your survivor pool.

NFL Survivor Pool Week 16 recap

Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 16 based on moneylines from FanDuel (as of December 17) converted with our Odds Calculator:

The Bills and Packers make the most sense in this spot because they have the highest probability of winning, but I definitely recommend checking your pool to see how many people have all of these teams above left. 

For instance, if you have to decide between the Bills and Packers and 50% of your pool has the Packers and only 5% of your pool has the Bills, then the Bills are the better choice game theory wise.

The Bengals will surely be less selected than the Bills, Packers, and Falcons this week and going up vs. DTR at quarterback, there is an argument to be made to them this week. Cincinnati is technically still alive in the playoff race and DTR tossed two interceptions vs. the Bengals earlier this season.

I doubt many people have the Lions available at this point, but if you do, they'd be a comfortable option vs. the Bears, despite injuries. 

Week 16 NFL Survivor Pool: The Pick

Packers vs. Saints

If you still have the Packers available, you really can't ask for a better spot in Week 16. Not only is Green Bay at home in the elements (cold temperatures and a chance of snow or sleet) against an indoor team, but that team will be without its starting quaterback.

The Saints definitely won't have Derek Carr and depending on how Alvin Kamara's groin injury shapes up later in the week, they may be without him as well. 

The Packers will have a big motivation edge in this one as they are still batting for playoff position while the Saints have nothing to play for besides pride. 

The only other spot that makes sense to use the Packers is Week 18 vs. the Bears, but are we certain the Packers won't be resting their starters that week? The Packers playoff seeding is locked in, they may not have much to play for.

Check out the table below where we will keep track of the teams as we pick them. We will mark picks we got wrong with an X, picks we got right with a ✔ and a pending pick with an O.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks

General NFL Survivor Pool Strategy

Know Your Pool’s rules

It’s important to know the rules of your pool before you make any selections. Don’t be the person scrambling to see how your pool handles ties while the team you selected is in the middle of an overtime thriller.

Every pool is different — Chris from accounting or whoever set up your pool might have a couple of weird rules thrown in that you need to know. Some pools allow buybacks after a loss (most don’t) and some go through the playoffs while others end after the regular season. Some survivor pools use point spreads, while most others just require a win to advance. Some larger pools consider holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas a separate week. Survivor pools require strategy, so don’t start strategizing until you fully understand your pool’s rules.

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Size Matters

The size of your pool should impact your strategy. Small pools with just a few friends don’t typically last as long, so a more conservative approach is often best. But if you’re in a huge office pool or large online pool, you need to take more chances and be thinking long-term if you want to win it all.

Zig while they zag

You don’t want to be on the most popular team each week. If an upset of the team everyone is picking occurs, you want to be away from the carnage and root for a different team. Sure, that often means taking on a little more risk and passing up a heavy favorite for a more moderate one, but this is the correct mindset to win your survivor pool. A lot of public survivor pool websites publish the selection percentages each week, so this can give you a rough idea of how people in your pool might be picking.

Conserve Good Teams

This is especially relevant when in a larger pool. It can be tempting to burn through a few of the best teams early in the season “just to survive,” but you will be looking at the list of teams available to you in Week 14 and sweating it out when you have to pick between the Bears and Titans to win a game. If you can make it through the first part of the year without burning some of the top teams, the payoff could be huge when you’ve got some big guns left in December.

Pick on bad teams

While you can’t select a team more than once, there’s nothing stopping you from picking on a bad team over and over. Of course, each team has a bye week and plays three division opponents twice, so you can’t fade the same team all 18 weeks, but picking average teams to beat really bad teams is often a great strategy. This season, teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers might be the teams to target. 

Create a road map, but be flexible

Before the season starts, look at the entire NFL schedule with the help of a grid, like the one found at Survivorgrid.com. A grid helps you stay ahead of things and map out a path to the finish line. Toying around with different paths will help you see which weeks are slim pickings and which teams have strong future value and might be worth saving for later.

While creating a path is useful, it’s important to be flexible when things like injuries or coaching changes happen. A team you thought would be terrible might get hot (like the Texans last season) and cause you to rethink your entire plan. Likewise, a team people expected to perform well might lose their starting QB in Week 1 (like the Jets last season) and force you to pull that team off your board.

Utilize multiple entries

If your pool allows multiple entries, that opens the door for even more strategies to consider. For instance, if you have two entries left during the final week, you could select two teams playing in the same game and essentially guarantee (unless there’s a tie) that one of your entries crosses the finish line. Toward the end of a pool, multiple entries can be thought of as chips at a poker table where the chip leader has an advantage because they have more entries and can take more risks without the fear of losing it all.

Identify landmines

There’s always a small handful of NFL games each season when a double-digit underdog wins and leaves survivor pool players speechless. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals' upset of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 is a prime example. If you can avoid these massive upsets, you’ll be in good shape. Make a list of games that you think others in your pool will be attracted to that you want to avoid because you see upset potential.

Beware of bad weather

A sloppy field can sometimes be the great equalizer between a good team and a bad team. For instance, in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and the Chicago Bears finished 4-13. However, when the teams met in Week 1, the Bears were victorious thanks in part to the sloppy field conditions at Soldier Field.

Think twice before selecting a big favorite in whacky weather conditions.