Steelers vs Browns Odds & Picks Week 12: Don't Doubt Pittsburgh

The Steelers are looking to stay hot with another division matchup set for Thursday Night Football.

Pittsburgh sits as a 4.5-point road favorite (-105 at FanDuel) against the Cleveland Browns, with the Steelers set at -200 on the moneyline. The Steelers have been the surprise of the season, winning eight of 10 games to start 2024, but bookmakers aren't entirely convinced they'll be able to dominate a 2-8 Browns team. These AFC North battles have a tendency to play tight, but I still think the Steelers can cover the points.

I'll break down complete Steelers vs Browns Week 12 odds and picks below:

Steelers vs Browns Odds Week 12

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns, Nov. 21, 8:15 pm ET

As of November 18th at FanDuel

The lines for this game are pretty different from book to book. I've seen some 4.5 numbers out there most places (including FanDuel). But, there are still some 3.5s for Steelers bettors available, including at Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday. I'll be grabbing that 3.5-point number for my pick this week.

Steelers vs Browns Picks Week 12

Steelers -3.5 (-115)

The Steelers are really good. They're 8-2 and rank top-10 in football in expected record, point differential, and expected points added per play. The Browns stink. They're 2-8 and rank bottom-10 in the same three metrics. That's not the type of matchup that leads to a 3.5-point line...

But, this is more than just a bet on the good team, it's a wager on Mike Tomlin. With a short turnaround for this Thursday Night Football game (and coming off a big rivalry win over the Ravens), this week would seem like the perfect let-down spot for Pittsburgh. But, the Steelers are too well coached for that. Pittsburgh is 10-7-1 with a rest disadvantage since 2020 — one of just nine teams with an above 55% win rate in those situations. They're also 17-9 (SU and ATS) in divisional games since 2020, 3rd-best ATS record in football in that stretch.

These are the games many teams choke away, but they're the games Pittsburgh wins. Give me the Steelers -3.5.

Steelers vs Browns Prop Pick

George Pickens OVER 56.5 Rec Yards (-110)

George Pickens has gone OVER this 56.5 yard mark in seven of his last 10 games and four-straight games with Russell Wilson as his QB. Since Wilson took over at QB, Pickens is averaging 91.25 yards per game. Pickens is built for Wilson's deep-ball style, racking up chunks of yards on massive plays.

Now, Pickens and the Steelers face a Browns defense that's allowed the 11th-most yards to opposing receivers (156 per game). Last week, Cleveland allowed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to get 87 yards on just two receptions. So, imagine what a true deep-ball threat like Pickens can do against them.

Steelers vs Browns Betting Trends

• The Steelers are 5-1 in their last six games against bottom-10 scoring defenses
• The UNDER has hit in seven of the Steelers' last 10 games against bottom-10 scoring defenses
• The Steelers have coverd the spread in five-straight games
• The Browns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12

These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights: