The NFL Week 9 slate begins tonight with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Houston Texans and New York Jets, with the Jets sitting as 1.5-point home favorites at BetMGM.
Despite losing five-straight games, the Jets are a perplexing favorite in this one. The public is just as skeptical of this line as I am, with 78% of bets coming in on the underdog Texans. We've also seen some reverse line movement ahead of the contest, with New York becoming increasing favorites despite most of the money coming in on Houston.
In terms of props, Joe Mixon and Tank Dell headline the markets, with bettors expecting those two to get plenty of touches this week with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out for the Texans.
Below, I'll highlight where the betting action is for the Week 9 Thursday Night Football game and what we can learn from the handle:
Texans vs Jets Betting Handle
Jets vs Texans, Oct. 31st, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +1.5 | 78% | 76% | O42.5 | 66% | 63% |
| New York Jets | -1.5 | 22% | 24% | U42.5 | 34% | 37% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
I'll be honest, I don't get this game line at all. The Jets have underperformed all season, losing five-straight games and plummeting to the NFL's basement. So, why in the heck are they slight favorites in this one?
Bettors seem to have the same idea as me, with a huge majority of the money and handle coming in on Houston to cover the spread tonight. But, as I'll break down below, all these Texans bets haven't moved the line toward Houston, as you would normally expect.
What's Up With The Texans vs Jets Line Movement?
The Texans opened as 1-point underdogs in this one and despite 76% of the money coming in on Houston, they've actually fallen to 1.5-point dogs. This is a perfect example of reverse line movement, signalling that a respected sharp or two may have placed significant wagers on the Jets, prompting the books to move the line in New York's favor. When I see a line line this — with a perplexing favorite and reverse line movement — I normally stay away, but I'm not sure I'll be able to hold myself back from fading the Jets once again tonight.
If you're not interested in a game picks for tonight's Texans vs Jets Halloween contest, BetMGM has also provided us the most bet on Houston and New York player props, in terms of number of tickets:
Five Most Bet Texans vs Jets Player Props
- Joe Mixon OVER 24.5 rec yards (-115)
- Tank Dell OVER 4.5 receptions (-110)
- CJ Stroud UNDER 221.5 rushing yards (-120)
- CJ Stroud OVER 8.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+120)
It's not hard to see why bettors are all over reception props for Houston's top offensive weapons. With WRs 1 and 2 out for the Texans this week (Collins and Diggs), there's vacuum to be filled in Houston's offense. Tank Dell is the obvious receiver to step up, and he's gone over this 4.5 receptions mark twice already this year. But bettors also seem to think the running back will get in on the passing action.
In terms of Mixon's receiving yard line, 99% of the bets on this market are on the OVER, so it's all bettors trying to take advantage of the uncertain Texans passing attack. However, the Jets actually allow the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RB this year, so this is a riskier bet then you may think.
Five most Bet Texans vs Jets Players for Anytime TD
- Davante Adams (+160)
- Joe Mixon (-155)
- Garrett Wilson (+180)
- Tank Dell (+190)
- Dalton Schultz (+333)
Five Most Bet Texans vs Jets Players For First TD
- Joe Mixon (+400)
- Davante Adams (+750)
- Breece Hall (+450)
- Dalton Schultz (+1600)
- Tank Dell (+800)
I think bettors have sniffed out some good touchdown bets for tonight.
Joe Mixon is the obvious safe play for an anytime or first touchdown scorer bet tonight. In the five games he's played this season, Mixon has scored in four and has six total touchdowns. Tonight, he faces a Jets defense that's let up five running back touchdowns in eight games and the 10th-most rushing yards against.
The plus-money anytime wager on Davante Adams also seems like a justified play, with Houston allowing the second-most touchdowns to opposing receivers this season (11 in eight games). You could also target a value Jets receiver touchdown bet, though, like Mike Williams (+550 at BetMGM).
