Titans vs Commanders Odds & Picks Week 13: Titans Too Large Of A Dog

The Washington Commanders are reeling after three straight losses and they look to get back on track as 5.5-point home favorites at bet365 over the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are just 2-9 ATS this season, but they’re coming off an outright upset as 8-point road underdogs against the Houston Texans. Can Jayden Daniels get this Washington offense back on track? Or will the Titans capture their second straight big-time road upset? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

Titans vs Commanders Odds Week 13

Titans vs Commanders, Dec. 1, 1:00 pm ET

Odds as of Nov. 28 at bet365

Titans vs Commanders Picks - Week 13

Titans +5.5 (-110) at bet365

After a disastrous beginning of the season, Will Levis is quietly playing excellent football for the Titans lately. Since Week 10, he ranks fourth in the league with 9.6 yards per attempt. He also has a 5:2 TD:INT ratio over that span, as he’s cut way down on the ugly turnovers that plagued the offense earlier in the year.

This matchup profiles as one where Levis can continue his success against a Washington defense ranked 25th against the pass by DVOA. The Titans still can’t protect Levis, ranking 29th in pass-block win rate, which is an issue against the Commanders, who rank eighth in pass-rush win rate. However, Washington ranks 29th in PFF’s coverage grades and has been vulnerable on the back end.

While Levis has been trending up, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense has clearly been on the decline. Over the first seven weeks of the season, the Commanders had the best offense in the league by EPA/play, but they rank just 18th since Week 8. Daniels doesn’t look healthy, while Kliff Kingsbury’s annual offensive decline is in full force as defenses have adjusted with the benefit of more film.

The Titans’ defense has been solid all year, ranking ninth in DVOA. It’s also excellent on early downs, ranking fifth in early down rushing success rate allowed. That’s a problem for the Commanders, who could be without both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler after they suffered injuries on Sunday.

This isn’t the greatest spot for Tennessee, playing its second straight road game and fifth in the last seven weeks, but the market isn’t properly reacting to how these teams are trending. After the Titans cashed as road underdogs last week, I’m backing them to do the same in Week 13.

Will Brian Robinson Jr. Play in This Game?

Austin Ekeler is almost certainly out this week as he’s in concussion protocol after a scary hit on Sunday resulted in him heading to the hospital. That means Brian Robinson Jr. will be even more crucial to the Commanders offense, but his status is in question after an ankle injury on Sunday. He practiced on Wednesday, but Washington still may be cautious with him, given he already missed time this season. If Robinson is out, the Commanders may be forced to start Jeremy McNichols this week, who has just 581 career rushing yards in seven NFL seasons.

Titans vs Commanders Prop Pick

Calvin Ridley OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley has significantly benefitted from Will Levis’ recently improved production, clearing this receiving yardage line in four of his last five outings. He’s averaging 90.2 receiving yards per game over that span. He should be in line for another big game against the Commanders, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA against WR1s this season. While Marshon Lattimore practiced for the first time with Washington on Wednesday, his debut may still not be enough for the Commanders to hold Ridley in check here.

Titans vs Commanders Betting Trends