It’s been a rough two weeks for my NFL line picks with the Pick Six but I’ve been able to salvage profit with some in-game plays and touchdown scorers so I’m not completely broke.
That being said, I’m very excited for Week 3 in the NFL as I see some lines that I feel we can exploit. However, if you’re not a believer, you can always fade the picks and call this column “The Fade Six” haha.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 3!
All betting odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Colts -1 vs Falcons (-105)
With the line almost at a pick’em, I’d have to side with the Colts in Week 3 as I think they’ve been one of the most impressive teams through two weeks. They should’ve won in Week 1 vs the Chargers but kicker Adam Vinatieri was off his game and he almost cost Indy in Week 2 vs the Titans. I think that issue will correct itself.
The Colts should force a few turnovers off of Matt Ryan, who has thrown five picks in two games, and the Falcons are last in turnover differential. I think the Colts win a close one.
UNDER 44 Bengals vs Bills (-115)
I can’t reconcile the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills are 2-0. It doesn’t make sense with their predictable offense but it goes to show what a good defense can do and the Bills have been excellent through two weeks. They’ve only allowed an average of 15 points vs both New York teams, rank sixth in passing yards allowed and now host a Bengals squad that couldn’t top 20 points at home vs the 49ers.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton will not be able to carve up this secondary and Cincy will likely need to abandon the run with Joe Mixon after the Bungles are down by two touchdowns.
Patriots -22.5 vs Jets (-110)
Two words: Luke Falk. That’s all you really need to know when placing this insane spread bet because the Patriots have the look of a team out for blood. They’ve outscored opponents 110-3 through two games and the Jets were so pitiful with QBs Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk on Monday Night Football that I’d be shocked if they score more than one touchdown.
The Patriots defense has been lights-out and I could see them running up the score like they did in Miami. The Pats hammered the Jets 38-3 at home last season and have won by 20 or more in the last three games in this matchup when played in Foxborough. Oh, and the Pats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a double-digit fave.
OVER 43 Steelers vs 49ers (-115)
Don’t let the backup quarterback trend fool you, Mason Rudolph is good. Now, I’m not saying he’ll carry the Steelers to a victory in Week 3 but I fully anticipate he will be able to put up at least 20 points on the 49ers.
He threw for two touchdowns in mop-up duty in Week 2 vs the Seahawks and now gets a full week to prep with the offense and utilize his weapons, like WR James Washington, who was his teammate at Oklahoma State.
Another reason I like the OVER is because of how poorly the Steelers defense has been playing. They’ve allowed 25 points or more in each of their games and rank 28th in passing yards allowed. Look for each team to put up at least 24 points and for a lot of points to be scored.
Panthers Moneyline vs Cardinals (+110)
I know I went against my strategy of taking underdog moneylines with spreads of 3 points or less when I picked the Colts but I need to go with my this strategy on this one as I believe in Kyle Allen, who will be filling in for starter Cam Newton.
Allen has been in this position before when he had to start in Week 17 in New Orleans and proceeded to put up a Newton stat line of a 59.3 percent completion rate, two touchdown passes and a touchdown run in the 33-14 win.
Yes, it was a meaningless game but the Saints only sat Brees, Kamara and Cameron Jordan and still had a lot of defensive starters on the field. The Cardinals are a fun team to watch but I’m fading them in this spot.
Panthers vs Cardinals Game Center
UNDER 41 Bears vs Redskins (-110)
I’ve seen enough of QB Mitch Trubisky to have lost all faith in the Bears offense. And I think this will continue the trend of low-scoring games in prime time. Trubisky is dead last among starting quarterbacks in yards per attempt and the Bears are last in passing yards per game.
I’m still very high on the Bears defense but I think the only way this game goes OVER is by defensive or special teams’ touchdowns. Give me the UNDER all day!
Follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis and my weekly touchdown scorer prop picks. Happy Betting!
