The NHL's 4 Nations Face-Off is nearing the end, with the puck dropping on a Canada vs USA final tonight.
We've got updated 4 Nations Face-Off odds from Sportsbook ahead of the last contest. The Americans opened as -125 favorites for this game, but with injury questions surrounding Auston Matthews and the Tkachuks (and Charlie McAvoy confirmed out), the line has moved in a big way. Right now, USA and Canada are both sitting at -110 odds.
After the Americans took the first version of this battle in the round robin, can Canada get revenge?
4 Nations Face-Off Odds
| Nation | Odds |
|---|---|
| USA | -110 |
| Canada | -110 |
Odds as of February 18th from Sportsbook
The above odds are from Sportsbook, but if you're a Canadian bettor located outside of Ontario be sure to take advantage of Bet99's special 4 Nations Promo where you get $25 for every $99 you wager on the tournament.
Why USA Should Be Favored In 4 Nations Face-Off Finals Odds
The Americans have been favorites in this tournament for a while now, and deservedly so. But, after weird injury news surrounding Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, Auston Matthews, and Charlie McAvoy, we've found ourselves with a pick 'em final.
I still think the Americans should be slight favorites for this game, though. USA has a near-perfect roster, with scoring and grit in the forward group, a dynamic defense, and easily the best quality between the pipes with Vezina Trophy-caliber goalies like two-time winner Connor Hellebuyck leading. In the only two meaningful games of the 4 Nations for America, they allowed just two goals.
Beyond their strong goaltending, the Americans have plenty of top scoring talent like Matthews, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes. But, more than anything else, they have this absurd skill/grit combo of Matthew and Brady Tkachuk. As long as the Tkachuks are healthy for the final, they will make a big impact. We also saw USA's great puck-moving defense come together in US wins over Finland and Canada to kick off the tournament.
Health is really the only issue the Americans face ahead of this final, because they're the better team on paper. I think the Americans are great value at -110 for this contest, unless we get more bad injury news before Thursday.
Can Canada Win The 4 Nations Face-Off?
Canada has dominated the international ice hockey stage for a while now, but the reign could be coming to an end. After losing to the Americans on Saturday and barely squeezing by Finland, Canada should be the underdogs in this final 4 Nations contest. I know they've got unmatched top talent in Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Cale Makar. But, it's hard to have faith in Canada for this final.
Canada's roster for the #4Nations Face-Off is set! 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/9W9lw6LR40
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) December 4, 2024
There's a massive weak link that will hold Canada back in this last game: goaltending. Of a dreadfully weak goalie group, Canada has gone with Jordan Binnington in the 4 Nations and he's put in very mediocre performances. Binnington was still good enough for Canada to barely win against Sweden and Finland, but has stopped just 66 of 74 shots (for a .891 save percentage). That is NOT going to be good enough for Canada to beat the US.
I really think Canada's fate in the final relies on Binnington — not the big dogs like McDavid, Crosby, and MacKinnon. There's only so much Canada's elite stars can do if they don't get saves.
We've seen Binnington be a hero in Boston before, helping St. Louis win a Cup at TD Garden, so maybe he has that beast in him once more? Frankly, I wouldn't bank on it, though. I'm taking USA.
4 Nations Final - Canada vs US: Betting Handle
| Moneyline | Bet % | Handle % | Total | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada (-110) | 43% | 48% | OVER 5.5 (-110) | 31% | 34% |
| USA (-110) | 57% | 52% | UNDER 5.5 (-110) | 69% | 66% |
From February 20th from Sportsbook
There are some interesting notes to glean from BetMGM's betting data for this 4 Nations final.
The public (just like me) seems to be siding with the Americans, with 57% of the bets and 52% of total money on USA.
The real interesting trend here is how heavy the UNDER bets are, though. We're seeing more than 2/3 of the money and bets on U5.5 total goals, and I get why. Of the tournament's six games, so far, just two have gone UNDER 5.5 goals. But, those two UNDERs were USA's last two games (including the win over Cannada on Saturday).
When Is The 2025 4 Nations Face-Off Final?
- Date: February 20th, 2025
- Location: TD Garden in Boston
- Television Broadcasts: Sportsnet (Canada). TNT, ESPN, ABC (USA)
- Where To Bet: Sportsbook and Bet99
