World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Mbappe’s Title To Lose

The consensus was that France’s Kylian Mbappe would win the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot and with five goals through five games, he just might prove that consensus right. He has possibly two games to continue outscoring a shrinking field of players. 

Mbappe’s Golden Boot odds are now at -200 per sportsbook Sportsbook. Lionel Messi is next at +300 and Olivier Giroud is at +700.

If you are looking for more 2022 World Cup betting resources or odds, check out our World Cup odds and futures page or our soccer betting hub.

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2022 World Cup Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of December 12 at Sportsbook

World Cup Golden Boot: Who Can Upset Mbappe’s Golden Boot Odds?

It comes down to Messi and Giroud. With all due respect to Julian Alvarez, Youssef En-Nesyri, Andrej Kramaric and Lautaro Martinez, they aren’t about to pop in four to six goals in the next two games. It’s just not going to happen. So let’s talk about the odds for Messi and Giroud.

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Olivier Giroud (+700)

Did you put money down on Giroud prior to France’s win over England? Because his odds were at +2500 just a few days ago. They’ve now dropped to +700. 

Can he pass teammate Mbappe at the top of the World Cup goals table? 

We have to remember that Giroud isn’t the same type of player that Mbappe is. Giroud is an out-and-out striker. He’s not the type of forward who links up play from the midfield. He floats around the 16-yard box looking for an Sportsbook to lash the ball into the net and to get on the end of a loose ball.

Giroud holds a 3.1 xG rate, second-best in the tournament. With his four goals on six shots on target, he also has the second-best conversion rate for any player with at least four shots. Only Richarlison has a better conversion rate, and as you probably know Brazil isn’t in the tournament anymore. 

We know Mbappe is going to get plenty of attention from defenders through the rest of the tournament, leaving plenty of opportunities for Giroud. 

Lock in a bet on Olivier Giroud or any other pick for the World Cup Golden Boot over at Sportsbook:

lionel Messi (+300)

The GOAT is two games away from lifting the World Cup and his attention won’t be on winning the Golden Boot. Frankly, no player’s attention in this tournament is on winning the Golden Boot. But with four goals in five games, Messi could very well leave Qatar with the award.

Messi holds the highest xG rate in the tournament at 3.8 and has scored four goals, just one back of Mbappe. Two of those goals are off penalty shots, something neither Mbappe nor Giroud have done yet in the tournament. Giroud doesn’t take penalties for France.

In terms of non-penalty goals, Messi holds an xG rate of 1.4, the 19th-best in the tournament. 

He is scoring at a sustainable rate from open play and then scoring from penalties, something the other two on the leaderboard don’t. 

Past FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Sportsbooks

How To Bet On World Cup Golden Boot Odds

The Golden Boot is awarded every World Cup to the player who scores the most goals throughout the entire tournament. Aside from the World Cup trophy itself, the Golden Boot is the most prestigious – and highly bet upon – award every four years.

One major strategy is to bet on the top goal scorer from a team you think will go deep in the tournament. However, there have been plenty of Golden Boot Sportsbooks on teams that didn’t make it that far into the World Cup.

Whoever you decide to bet on, head over to one of our top soccer sportsbooks and lock in a 2022 World Cup Golden Boot odds bet as early as possible before you miss out on the value: