Merab Dvalishvili will defend his UFC bantamweight title against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311 on Jan. 18, and the odds favor the challenger.
Umar is a -250 favorite vs Merab, the +200 underdog, as the sportsbooks recognize the Nurmagomedov name and Umar's track record of dominance. It's a bit of disrespect for Dvalishvili, who not long ago spanked Sean O'Malley and still had plenty left in the tank.
Perhaps Nurmagomedov comes out and controls the fight. Perhaps not. Let's dive into Umar vs Merab at UFC 311.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -250 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +200 |
Odds as of Dec. 10
How To Bet Umar
Umar is talented as a grappler and creative as a striker, making him one of Dagestan's more intriguing prospects. He showed some impressive cardio and resilience in his fight last summer vs Cory Sandhagen, a bout he won by decision. Sandhagen resisted many of Umar's takedowns, so the Russian pivoted to striking advances and found some success, though not enough to damage his opponent.
Nurmagomedov would always just "keep pace" with Sandhagen on the feet before attacking a takedown. Cory's side-to-side movement made Umar's life difficult, which is why I think Merab will find success. The Georgian is like a bouncy ball in the cage and hard to pin down (ask O'Malley). From this logic, Umar will need to wrangle Merab and gun for a submission.
Dvalishvili will try to squeeze Umar on the cage, and then Nurmagomedov can get to work. He could win a decision, but Merab's pace deters me there. Umar's -250 odds don't make things unmanageable, so I'll play it safe and declare my best bet is for Umar to win inside the distance.
How To Bet Dvalishvili
Umar will be very hard to stop. The Dagestan native is proficient as a striker and possesses an anaconda-like squeeze, but Merab is a machine, too. The champ is a ball of thunder in the cage, always moving and ready to bring pressure. O'Malley couldn't set up combos against Merab, and I'd be surprised if Umar teed anything up.
Merab will shoot for his own takedowns, too, and use his strength to smother Nurmagomedov. Umar didn't strike me as a particularly strong bantamweight during his fight against Sandhagen, and Merab's fire-hydrant-esque physique gives him a big edge, especially in tight.
Betting Dvalishvili is easy as the +200 underdog. You can also take a flier on his to win by decision.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Betting Pick
Dvalishvili’s relentless pace, pressure, and ability to shoot takedowns make him a challenging matchup for Umar, especially with his explosive and tireless style. While Umar has the tools to win, I see Merab's cardio and strength as key advantages, and I’ll be betting on him to cash as the +200 underdog.
