Auburn Vs Michigan State Preview & Picks: Can the Spartans Slow Down the Tigers?

Johni Broome stepping out to hit from distance. Denver Jones going around the back for the scoop layup. Tahaad Pettiford going coast-to-coast. After an uneven end to the regular season, it certainly looked like Auburn flipped the switch in the Sweet 16. Now only one of the best coaches in college basketball stands between the Tigers and the Final Four.

The top seed in the South Region, Auburn is a 4.5-point favorite Sunday in Atlanta over Tom Izzo and No. 2 seed Michigan State in the Elite Eight. After failing to cover in five straight games—three of which they lost outright—the Tigers have now covered two in a row, including Friday’s 78-65 victory over Michigan in the Sweet 16. The Spartans have won 11 of 12 and beaten the spread in 10 of those, though they failed to cover in a 73-70 comeback win over Ole Miss on Friday.

Auburn vs Michigan State Odds

Matchup Page: Auburn Tigers vs. Michigan State Spartans, Mar. 30, 5:05 pm ET

Odds as of March 29, 2025 at Sportsbook

Auburn vs Michigan State preview & picks

The Auburn we saw in the Sweet 16 against Michigan looked much more like the team that stared the season 27-2—devastatingly effective around the rim, able to quickly get out into transition, willing to risk the occasional turnover for the potential big play. Now the question is whether this was a one-night return engagement, or if this version of the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 overall seed is back to stay.

Auburn’s talent runs so deep—three Tigers scored 20 or more against the Wolverines—that at their best, no one can keep up with them. Michigan State has the grit and savvy of an Izzo-coached team, no doubt, after rallying from second-half deficits both in the Round of 32 against New Mexico and the Sweet 16 against Ole Miss. But for all the heroics of guard Jase Richardson, the Spartans will be playing with the inferior roster on Sunday.

Can Izzo make up for that? He’s done it before, knocking off top-seeded Duke to go to the Final Four in 2019. But the only thing that can truly stop Auburn on Sunday is the Tigers themselves. Auburn is far better in offensive efficiency at KenPom.com, has a far better strength of schedule, won the best league in college basketball. Maybe Bruce Pearl’s team will run into another mind block. But if the switch has been truly flipped, watch out.

Auburn vs Michigan State Pick: Auburn -4.5 (-115)

Michigan State ranks a very respectable 44th nationally in scoring defense, and as a result has gone UNDER in 14 of its last 17 games, including all three in the NCAA tournament. Auburn for all its scoring prowess has gone UNDER in four of five. The Spartans will try to slow down the Tigers and limit their possessions—though how effective they’ll be remains to be seen.

Auburn vs Michigan State Pick: UNDER 147.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Saturday, March 29 at 2:30 pm ET

Auburn vs Michigan State Prop Bet: Denver Jones 13+ Points (+100)

Jones’ behind-the-back scoop layup was a highlight for Auburn against Michigan, and showed just how effective this slashing guard can be. Jones put up 20 against the Wolverines, and has hit for double-digits in four of his last five. He’s exactly the kind of player who can have a big night as Michigan State focuses on Johni Broome inside and stopping 3s on the perimeter.

Auburn vs Michigan State Betting Trends