4 vs 13 Seed History: How Many 13 Seeds Beat A 4 Seed?

March Madness is a upon us now that the bracket is formed and we have our 4 vs 13 seed matchups. The four No. 4 seeds are: Texas A&M, Maryland, Purdue and Arizona. While the No. 13 seeds are: Yale, Grand Canyon, High Point and Akron.

Let it be known, a No. 13 seed upsetting a No. 4 seed isn't as much of a betting longshot as you'd think with 33 wins all-time. At least one No. 4 seed has been upset in 17 of the past 23 tournaments, the exceptions being 2004, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2022. Will there be a lucky No. 13 this year? 

How many times has the no. 4 seed been upset by the no. 13 seed?

Since 1985, No. 13 seeds carry a 33-123 record all-time against No. 4 seeds. However, as I mentioned above, it's been a consistent event with only six March Madness' not witnessing an upset since the turn of the century. Since 2010, five of the 12 upsets were decided by two-points. Overall, No. 13 seeds are 7-2 in meetings decided by one point.

Last year, March Madness bettors saw No. 13 Yale knock off No. 4 Auburn in a 78-76 dogfight with Samson Aletan executing a crucial block in the final four seconds. The Tigers entered as 13.5-point favorites, the largest spread of the 4 vs 13 matchups of 2024. In the season prior, No. 13 Furman hushed No. 4 Virginia by one point after a brutal last-second turnover.

What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?

Dating back to 1996, betting on 4 vs 13 matchups are a toss up with No. 4 seeds barely holding the edge with a 56-55-1 ATS record. But, No. 13 seeds are rewriting the script lately, going 16-8 ATS since 2018—recording a 66.6% cover rate. 

Odds of 13 seed beating 4 seed

Of the 156 4 vs 13 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 13 seed has a 21.1% chance of defeating the No. 4 seed outright in March Madness.

no. 4 seed vs no. 13 seed History