With Selection Sunday upcoming, our 7 vs 10 matchups are about to be locked in.
A No. 10 seed upsetting a No. 7 seed isn't far-fetched. Seriously, it's occurred at least once every tournament and I literally mean that; with all four No. 7 seeds only advancing twice (1993, 2007) in the last four decades.
How many times has the no. 7 seed been upset by the no. 10 seed?
Since 1985, No. 7 seeds carry a healthy 95-60 record all-time against No. 10 seeds. Chances are you're going to witness an upset in the Big Dance as the No. 7 seeds have only pulled off a clean sweep twice, the last being nearly 20 years ago.
On the flip side, don't expect the No. 10 seed to write a perfect first round, either. 1999 marked the only tournament to date where No. 7 seeds lost all four games to 10s.
In 2024, Colorado was the only No. 10 seed to accomplish an upset over Florida in a high-scoring 102-100 thrill. The season prior, Penn State was also the only No. 10 seed to defeat their opponent. The Nittany Lions eliminated Texas A&M in a 76-59 finish, despite being the largest underdog (+2.5) on the 7 vs 10 matchups in 2023.
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
Dating back to 1996, betting on 7 vs 10 generally leans towards the favorite with No. 7 seeds boasting the edge with a 60-49-1 ATS record. Keep in mind, these lines are tighter compared to other higher vs lower seed pairings. Since 2021, 13 of the last 14 spreads have been set at three-points or fewer. Note, the 2021 matchup between Oregon vs VCU was declared a no content because of COVID protocols. No. 7 seeds are maintaining their status, going 8-3 ATS since 2022—recording a 72.7% cover rate.
Odds of 10 seed beating 7 seed
Of the 155 7 vs 10 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 10 seed has a 38.7% chance of defeating the No. 7 seed outright in March Madness.
no. 7 seed vs no. 10 seed History
| #7 Seed | Score | #10 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 100 | Colorado | 102 | 2024-03-22 | Colorado | 10 | 10 |
| Washington St. | 66 | Drake | 61 | 2024-03-21 | Washington St. | 7 | 7 |
| Dayton | 63 | Nevada | 60 | 2024-03-21 | Dayton | 7 | 7 |
| Texas | 56 | Colorado St. | 44 | 2024-03-21 | Texas | 7 | 7 |
| Missouri | 76 | Utah State | 65 | 2023-03-16 | Missouri | 7 | 7 |
| Michigan State | 72 | USC | 62 | 2023-03-17 | Michigan State | 7 | 7 |
| Northwestern | 75 | Boise State | 67 | 2023-03-16 | Northwestern | 7 | 7 |
| Texas A&M | 59 | Penn State | 76 | 2023-03-16 | Penn State | 10 | 10 |
| Michigan State | 74 | Davidson | 73 | 2022-03-18 | PUSH | 7 | PUSH |
| Murray State | 92 | San Francisco | 87 | 2022-03-17 | Murray State | 7 | 7 |
| USC | 66 | Miami (FL) | 68 | 2022-03-18 | Miami (FL) | 10 | 10 |
| Ohio State | 54 | Loyola Chicago | 41 | 2022-03-18 | Ohio State | 7 | 7 |
| Clemson | 56 | Rutgers | 60 | 2021-03-19 | Rutgers | 10 | 10 |
| Florida | 75 | Virginia Tech | 70 | 2021-03-19 | Florida | 7 | 7 |
| UConn | 54 | Maryland | 63 | 2021-03-20 | Maryland | 10 | 10 |
| Oregon | -- | VCU | -- | 2021-03-20 | -- | 7 | -- |
| Wofford | 84 | Seton Hall | 68 | 2019-03-21 | Wofford | 7 | 7 |
| Nevada | 61 | Florida | 70 | 2019-03-21 | Florida | 10 | 10 |
| Cincinnati | 72 | Iowa | 79 | 2019-03-22 | Iowa | 10 | 10 |
| Louisville | 76 | Minnesota | 86 | 2019-03-21 | Minnesota | 10 | 10 |
| Rhode Island | 83 | Oklahoma | 78 | 2018-03-15 | Rhode Island | 7 | 7 |
| Nevada | 87 | Texas | 83 | 2018-03-16 | Nevada | 7 | 7 |
| Arkansas | 62 | Butler | 79 | 2018-03-16 | Butler | 10 | 10 |
| Texas A&M | 73 | Providence | 69 | 2018-03-16 | Texas A&M | 7 | 7 |
| South Carolina | 93 | Marquette | 73 | 2017-03-17 | South Carolina | 7 | 7 |
| Michigan | 92 | Oklahoma State | 91 | 2017-03-17 | Oklahoma State | 7 | 10 |
| Saint Mary’s | 85 | VCU | 77 | 2017-03-17 | Saint Mary’s | 7 | 7 |
| Dayton | 58 | Wichita State | 64 | 2017-03-17 | Dayton | 10 | 7 |
| Dayton | 51 | Syracuse | 70 | 2016-03-18 | Syracuse | 10 | 10 |
| Oregon State | 67 | VCU | 75 | 2016-03-18 | VCU | 10 | 10 |
| Wisconsin | 47 | Pittsburgh | 43 | 2016-03-18 | Wisconsin | 7 | 7 |
| Iowa | 72 | Temple | 70 | 2016-03-18 | Temple | 7 | 10 |
| Wichita State | 81 | Indiana | 76 | 2015-03-20 | Indiana | 7 | 10 |
| Michigan State | 70 | Georgia | 63 | 2015-03-20 | Michigan State | 7 | 7 |
| Iowa | 83 | Davidson | 52 | 2015-03-20 | Iowa | 7 | 7 |
| VCU | 72 | Ohio State | 75 | 2015-03-19 | VCU | 10 | 7 |
| New Mexico | 53 | Stanford | 58 | 2014-03-21 | Stanford | 10 | 10 |
| Texas | 87 | Arizona State | 85 | 2014-03-20 | PUSH | 7 | |
| Connecticut | 89 | Saint Joseph’s | 81 | 2014-03-20 | Connecticut | 7 | 7 |
| Oregon | 87 | BYU | 68 | 2014-03-20 | Oregon | 7 | 7 |
| Notre Dame | 58 | Iowa State | 76 | 2013-03-22 | Iowa State | 10 | 10 |
| San Diego State | 70 | Oklahoma | 55 | 2013-03-22 | San Diego State | 7 | 7 |
| Illinois | 57 | Colorado | 49 | 2013-03-22 | Illinois | 7 | 7 |
| Creighton | 67 | Cincinnati | 63 | 2013-03-22 | Creighton | 7 | 7 |
| Notre Dame | 63 | Xavier | 67 | 2012-03-16 | Xavier | 10 | 10 |
| Saint Mary’s | 69 | Purdue | 72 | 2012-03-16 | Purdue | 10 | 10 |
| Florida | 71 | Virginia | 45 | 2012-03-16 | Florida | 7 | 7 |
| Gonzaga | 77 | West Virginia | 54 | 2012-03-15 | Gonzaga | 7 | 7 |
| Washington | 68 | Georgia | 65 | 2011-03-18 | Georgia | 7 | 10 |
| Texas A&M | 50 | Florida State | 57 | 2011-03-18 | Florida State | 10 | 10 |
| UCLA | 78 | Michigan State | 76 | 2011-03-17 | UCLA | 7 | 7 |
| Temple | 66 | Penn State | 64 | 2011-03-17 | Penn State | 7 | 10 |
| Oklahoma State | 59 | Georgia Tech | 64 | 2010-03-19 | Georgia Tech | 10 | 10 |
| Clemson | 78 | Missouri | 86 | 2010-03-19 | Missouri | 10 | 10 |
| Richmond | 71 | Saint Mary’s | 80 | 2010-03-18 | Saint Mary’s | 10 | 10 |
| BYU | 99 | Florida | 92 | 2010-03-18 | BYU | 7 | 7 |
| Boston College | 55 | USC | 72 | 2009-03-20 | USC | 10 | 10 |
| Clemson | 59 | Michigan | 62 | 2009-03-19 | Michigan | 10 | 10 |
| Texas | 76 | Minnesota | 62 | 2009-03-19 | Texas | 7 | 7 |
| California | 71 | Maryland | 84 | 2009-03-19 | Maryland | 10 | 10 |
| Butler | 81 | South Alabama | 61 | 2008-03-21 | Butler | 7 | 7 |
| Miami | 78 | Saint Mary’s | 64 | 2008-03-21 | Miami | 7 | 7 |
| Gonzaga | 76 | Davidson | 82 | 2008-03-21 | Davidson | 10 | 10 |
| West Virginia | 75 | Arizona | 65 | 2008-03-20 | West Virginia | 7 | 7 |
| Nevada | 77 | Creighton | 71 | 2007-03-16 | Nevada | 7 | 7 |
| UNLV | 67 | Georgia Tech | 63 | 2007-03-16 | UNLV | 7 | 7 |
| Indiana | 70 | Gonzaga | 57 | 2007-03-15 | Indiana | 7 | 7 |
| Boston College | 84 | Texas Tech | 75 | 2007-03-15 | Boston College | 7 | 7 |
| California | 52 | NC State | 58 | 2006-03-17 | NC State | 10 | 10 |
| Georgetown | 54 | Northern Iowa | 49 | 2006-03-17 | Georgetown | 7 | 7 |
| Marquette | 85 | Alabama | 90 | 2006-03-16 | Alabama | 10 | 10 |
| Wichita State | 86 | Seton Hall | 66 | 2006-03-16 | Wichita State | 7 | 7 |
| Southern Illinois | 65 | Saint Mary’s | 56 | 2005-03-18 | Southern Illinois | 7 | 7 |
| Charlotte | 63 | NC State | 75 | 2005-03-18 | NC State | 10 | 10 |
| West Virginia | 63 | Creighton | 61 | 2005-03-17 | West Virginia | 7 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 76 | Iowa | 64 | 2005-03-17 | Cincinnati | 7 | 7 |
| Xavier | 80 | Louisville | 70 | 2004-03-19 | Xavier | 7 | 7 |
| Memphis | 59 | South Carolina | 43 | 2004-03-19 | Memphis | 7 | 7 |
| DePaul | 76 | Dayton | 69 | 2004-03-18 | DePaul | 7 | 7 |
| Michigan State | 66 | Nevada | 72 | 2004-03-18 | Nevada | 10 | 10 |
| Saint Joseph’s | 63 | Auburn | 65 | 2003-03-21 | Auburn | 10 | 10 |
| Indiana | 67 | Alabama | 62 | 2003-03-21 | Indiana | 7 | 7 |
| Michigan State | 79 | Colorado | 64 | 2003-03-21 | Michigan State | 7 | 7 |
| Memphis | 71 | Arizona State | 84 | 2003-03-20 | Arizona State | 10 | 10 |
| Xavier | 70 | Hawaii | 58 | 2002-03-15 | Xavier | 7 | 7 |
| NC State | 69 | Michigan State | 58 | 2002-03-15 | NC State | 7 | 7 |
| Oklahoma State | 61 | Kent State | 69 | 2002-03-14 | Kent State | 10 | 10 |
| Wake Forest | 83 | Pepperdine | 74 | 2002-03-14 | Wake Forest | 7 | 7 |
| Wake Forest | 63 | Butler | 79 | 2001-03-16 | Butler | 10 | 10 |
| Penn State | 69 | Providence | 59 | 2001-03-16 | Penn State | 7 | 7 |
| Iowa | 69 | Creighton | 56 | 2001-03-15 | Iowa | 7 | 7 |
| Arkansas | 61 | Georgetown | 63 | 2001-03-15 | Georgetown | 10 | 10 |
| Oregon | 71 | Seton Hall | 72 | 2000-03-17 | Seton Hall | 10 | 10 |
| Tulsa | 89 | UNLV | 62 | 2000-03-17 | Tulsa | 7 | 7 |
| Louisville | 66 | Gonzaga | 77 | 2000-03-16 | Gonzaga | 10 | 10 |
| Auburn | 72 | Creighton | 69 | 2000-03-16 | Auburn | 7 | 7 |
| Texas | 54 | Purdue | 58 | 1999-03-12 | Purdue | 10 | 10 |
| Washington | 58 | Miami (Ohio) | 59 | 1999-03-12 | Miami (Ohio) | 10 | 10 |
| Louisville | 58 | Creighton | 62 | 1999-03-11 | Creighton | 10 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 63 | Gonzaga | 75 | 1999-03-11 | Gonzaga | 10 | 10 |
| St. John’s | 64 | Detroit | 66 | 1998-03-13 | Detroit | 10 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 46 | Saint Louis | 51 | 1998-03-13 | Saint Louis | 10 | 10 |
| Temple | 52 | West Virginia | 82 | 1998-03-12 | West Virginia | 10 | 10 |
| Indiana | 94 | Oklahoma | 87 | 1998-03-12 | Indiana | 7 | 7 |
| Marquette | 59 | Providence | 81 | 1997-03-14 | PUSH | 10 | |
| Charlotte | 79 | Georgetown | 67 | 1997-03-14 | Charlotte | 7 | 7 |
| Texas | 71 | Wisconsin | 58 | 1997-03-14 | Texas | 7 | 7 |
| Xavier | 80 | Vanderbilt | 68 | 1997-03-13 | Xavier | 7 | 7 |
| Temple | 61 | Oklahoma | 43 | 1996-03-15 | Temple | 7 | 7 |
| New Mexico | 69 | Kansas State | 48 | 1996-03-15 | New Mexico | 7 | 7 |
| Maryland | 79 | Santa Clara | 91 | 1996-03-15 | Santa Clara | 10 | 10 |
| Michigan | 76 | Texas | 80 | 1996-03-15 | Texas | 10 | 10 |
March Madness 7 vs 10 Betting History FAQ
Where can I bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games?
If you are looking for the best place to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games, Odds Shark has compiled a list of the Best March Madness Betting Sites for you to wager on this spring. The guide reviews the top NCAAB tournament sportsbooks and gives insight into the best place to bet on March Madness this year for casual fans and experienced bettors.
How do I bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games?
There are multiple ways to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games, including a moneyline bet, a spread bet, or many different props. Odds Shark's How to Bet on March Madness guide outlines all the bet formats you can utilize during the NCAAB tournament and some general March Madness betting tips for each.
When was the last time a 10 seed beat a 7 seed in March Madness?
The last time a No. 10 seed beat a 7 seed in March Madness was in 2024 when the underdog Colorado defeated the No. 7 Florida Gators 102-100.
