Selection Sunday is over and the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket is out—let the Big Dance begin.
Now the dust has settled, it's clear that some teams have a much easier path to the National Championship than others. For example, Houston and the other teams in the Midwest Region such as Gonzaga and Tennessee are in for an absolute battle to get to the Final Four. Whereas No. 1 seeds Duke and Auburn have a much lighter schedule on tap.
As it stands, the Duke Blue Devils are the odds favorite to win the national championship at +310, followed by overall No. 1 seed Auburn at +380, Florida at +400 and Houston at +650. But as always, there are bound to be upsets and surprises, given that since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, all four No. 1 regional seeds have made it to the Final Four just once—that in 2008.
Region of Death
Houston, as champions of the Big 12, earned a No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and relatively favorable geographic placing in Wichita, Kansas. But beyond that, the NCAA selection committee did the Cougars no favors—of the top 20 teams in the KenPom analytical rankings at the end of the regular season, a whopping seven were placed in the Midwest along with Houston.
It could get hairy for the Cougars fairly quickly: potential second-round opponent Gonzaga is ranked ninth at KenPom (and eighth in the NCAA’s NET rankings). The Bulldogs', despite some stumbles in WCC, play recovered to win nine of their last 10 and beat St. Mary’s for the league tournament title. No other top regional seed faces a potential top-10 KenPom team in the second round; the highest would be No. 23 Louisville, a potential matchup for Auburn in the Round of 32.
Clemson, Purdue, Illinois, Kentucky and No. 2 regional seed Tennessee, all top-20 KenPom teams, potentially await the Cougars later on. Given that path, it would make sense for sports bettors to examine other Final Four candidates out of the Midwest—like the Volunteers, who are a +340 wager to make it to San Antonio.
Easy Riders
Then there’s the other side of the coin, and the top regional seed which appears to have the easiest path to the Final Four. Duke and Auburn both have three other top-20 KenPom teams in their respective brackets, with an average ranking of 11 in the Blue Devil’s East to 11.6 in the Tigers’ South. Neither squad would face another KenPom top 20 team until the Sweet 16—Duke potentially No. 14 Arizona, and Auburn potentially No. 17 Texas A&M.
The math, though, suggests that Duke among the No. 1 seeds has the least rigorous path to San Antonio, assuming that star freshman Cooper Flagg is not further hampered by the sprained ankle he suffered in the quarterfinals on the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are overwhelming -120 favorites to win the East, followed by No. 2 seed Alabama at +390 and No. 4 seed Arizona at +700.
Upset Central
But hey, the fun in the NCAA tournament is in the upsets, right? In looking for those candidates to spring an early surprise—or perhaps make it all the way to the Final Four, like No. 11 regional seed North Carolina did last year—we again turn to the analytics. The double-digit seed ranked highest at KenPom.com is VCU at No. 30, which opened as a 2.5-point underdog to No. 24 BYU in an East first-round game.
Then there are the darlings of the West coast, UC San Diego, which is No. 36 at KenPom after winning the Big West tournament. The Tritons are a No. 12 seed in the South and opened as a 2.5-point underdog to No. 5 seed Michigan. But consider this: UCSD is the best ATS team in the country according to data at TeamRankings.com, with a 78 percent cover rate. The Wolverines meanwhile live off close games, and are under .500 ATS on the season.
One other potential Cinderella to monitor is New Mexico, a No. 10 seed in the South ranked 41st at KenPom. The Lobos this season have scored wins over four NCAA tournament teams (UCLA, VCU, Colorado State and San Diego State) and opened as 3.5-point underdogs to Marquette. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, have failed to cover in four straight and have just one win over an NCAA tournament team since Jan. 3.
NCAA Picks
Picks by yours truly: Auburn to win the South (+105), St. John’s to win the West (+600), Tennessee to win the Midwest (+340) and Duke to win to East (-120). Auburn and Duke to meet in the national championship game, with the Blue Devils (+310) to win the national championship.
