Top 25 College Basketball Betting Preview: Alabama Engineers a Dramatic Turnaround ATS

There was a time, not too long ago, when Alabama felt downright radioactive from a sports betting standpoint.

The Crimson Tide played an early-season schedule loaded with major-conference opponents and likely NCAA tournament teams—Oregon, Clemson, Ohio State, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona. Nate Oats’ squad won exactly one of those games, against Oregon, and plummeted from a preseason AP Top 25 team to out of the rankings. They also covered in just one of those games, against Creighton, raising legitimate concerns about their viability as a sports betting option for the long haul.

That all seems like a distant memory now. Because after Alabama finally concluded the hardest part of the nation’s fourth-toughest schedule (according to the advanced statistics at KenPom.com), it began winning games and covering spreads at a furious pace.

On Dec. 20, after failing to cover as a 7-point underdog against Arizona, the Tide had dropped five of seven outright and lost six times ATS in that same span. Since then, Alabama entering this week had won 12 of 14 outright, and covered the spread in 11 of 14. The Crimson Tide now has the fifth-best cover rate of any team in the AP Top 25, according to TeamRakings.com, and at most sportsbooks has risen into the top 10 in national championship futures.

1-0 in the Crimson Tide unis 😎#RollTide | #BlueCollarBasketball pic.twitter.com/3BKXMdeRTl

— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) February 17, 2024

What changed? Oats reshuffled roles on his coaching staff, according to AL.com, taking over defensive game-planning himself—an unusual but necessary step after watching Oregon, Ohio State, and Purdue to all score in the 90s. There are clearly still lapses, evidenced by Tennessee scoring 91 and Auburn 99 in Alabama’s only two losses of 2024 entering this week. But more times than not, that renewed defensive focus has been enough to allow the SEC’s top scoring offense (90.68 points per game) to take care of the rest. 

For sports bettors, though, there are still legit concerns about Alabama against Quad 1 teams in the NCAA’s NET rankings. The Tide was just 2-6 overall in that category as of Monday (3-6 against the spread) ahead of a massive showdown coming up Saturday at Kentucky. Alabama’s betting trend at this point has become pretty established: fade or avoid them against top teams, and jump on the bandwagon against everybody else.

And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.

Winners

Iowa State: The Cyclones entered this week with the best cover rate of any team in the AP Top 25, having beaten the spread in five straight and nine of their last 11. They’re even better in the win column, having claimed 15-of-18 outright. Monday brought a tough showdown at Houston, but after that the schedule eases considerably, offering lots of potential betting possibilities the rest of the way.

Arizona: The Wildcats team that habitually dropped Pac-12 road games survived a three-overtime test at Utah, and has been throttling opponents ever since. The Wildcats went to Boulder and beat a pretty good Colorado team by 20, then destroyed rival Arizona State by 45, the biggest margin ever in that rivalry. Arizona entered this week with six straight wins, covers in five of its last six, and its two toughest remaining games at home—where they were undefeated as of Monday.

Arizona Men’s Basketball moves up 1 spot to 4th in the @AP_Top25 poll after its blowout win over Arizona State! @KVOA pic.twitter.com/sX7jP2HUV1

— Jenna Fink (@jennamfink) February 19, 2024

Connecticut: Sure, the Huskies are No. 1 in the country and had won 14 consecutive games entering this week. But the reigning national champions have hardly been a sure thing from a sports betting standpoint, dropping five of eight against the spread at one point, and four of six at another. But last week’s 28-point pounding of 7-point underdog Marquette was an eyebrow-raiser, and UConn’s fourth win against the spread in its last five games entering this week.

Losers

South Carolina: The Gamecocks crowed about respect, finally got into the AP Top 25, and then suffered an absolutely brutal week: buried by 40 at Auburn, and then blew a 16-point lead and lost at home to an LSU team with an under-.500 record in SEC play. While the Gamecocks are still covering overall at nearly a 70% clip, they entered the week with losses against the spread in three of their last four, and confidence in this bunch isn’t exactly high right now.

Analysis: South Carolina is handed its fifth loss of the season after a second-half comeback by LSU.

Read more:

✏️ @hardysmothers1
📸 @Kitchens413 https://t.co/2tnYgn8rxA

— The Daily Gamecock (@thegamecock) February 18, 2024

BYU: A road loss to a pretty bad Oklahoma State team was BYU’s six outright defeat in its last 12 games. But things are even worse for the Cougars against the spread, where entering the week they had failed to cover in nine of their last 12. All this against the easiest part of their inaugural Big 12 slate—BYU has Baylor, Kansas, TCU and Iowa State all coming up.

Wisconsin: Three weeks ago, the Badgers were No. 6 in the poll and pointed straight at a showdown with Purdue. Then they blew a 19-point lead at Nebraska, and everything fell apart. Wisconsin dropped out of the AP Top 25 on Monday, on the heels of a brutal stretch that’s seen the Badgers lose five of six outright and eight of nine against the spread. 

Upset Alert

Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:

North Carolina at Virginia: The Cavaliers fell out of the poll Monday following a home loss to Pittsburgh, but this remains a team that’s won nine of 10 and covered in five of nine as of Monday. North Carolina’s thin roster has been exposed in recent losses to Georgia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse, and outlasting Virginia’s grueling tempo is never an easy task.

Alabama at Kentucky: As mentioned earlier, Alabama doesn’t have the best track record against elite teams this season, despite the Crimson Tide’s dramatic resurgence overall. But is Kentucky an elite team? Even with the win at Auburn, the Wildcats were just 4-4 in their last eight games as of Monday, both outright and against the spread.

South Carolina at Ole Miss: The Gamecocks held off the Rebels by three points on Feb. 6 in Columbia, failing to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. While Ole Miss entered this week having won and covered just one of its last four games, this still shapes up as difficult task for flagging South Carolina, which may well turn out to be an underdog in Oxford.

Player Prop Watch

Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:

Top 25 Pick 3

Arizona to cover against Washington: The Wildcats are starting to look like a Final Four team once again, and entering the week they were 13-0 outright and 10-3 against the spread at home. That’s a good sign against the Huskies, who as of Monday were under .500 in Pac-12 play, and had lost seven of their last 10 games.

Oklahoma State to cover against Oklahoma: The Cowboys are one of the few Big 12 teams with no shot at the Big Dance barring an unlikely conference tournament run. But they’ve been giving opponents fits lately, covering five of six entering the week, a stretch that includes an outright victory over BYU. Oklahoma State lost to the Sooners by just four in Norman—and this is the final Bedlam Basketball game in Iba Arena.

Iowa State to cover against West Virginia: The Mountaineers may be a team that can give opponents trouble at home, but Ames is a long way from Morgantown. West Virginia entering the week had lost six of seven both outright and against the spread, while the Cyclones have been one of the more reliable covers of 2024—and entered Monday with a 13-2 mark against the spread at home. Hilton magic, indeed.