The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoff since 2017 and Matt Ryan and Julio Jones aren't walking through that door. However, Kirk Cousins did walk through that door and Atlanta's new QB is giving Falcons fans a lot of hope that this is the year Atlanta enters the playoff hunt.
The reason for optimism from fans in Atlanta is understandable and rational. After all, many viewed the Falcons as a playoff contender last season if QB Desmond Ridder could be servicable. Instead, Ridder tossed 12 TDs, 12 INTs and Atlanta's hopes in the trash.
Cousins brings a Pro Bowl resume to Atlanta, but it's worth noting the Vikings only won one division title during his six seasons in Atlanta. It's also worth noting that Cousins is 36-years-old and coming off of a serious Achilles injury. That said, Cousins has plenty of weapons to do some damage in the NFC South and by all accounts he's looked healthy in the offseason.
Jump into all the odds and all the Falcons futures betting options below while I explain how I'm approaching these markets:
2024 Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl & NFC Odds
Super Bowl Odds | NFC Championship Odds | NFC South Odds |
+2600 | +1200 | -145 |
Odds from FanDuel as of August 30
Betting on the Falcons at +2600 to win the Super Bowl is a fun idea if you're a deprived Falcons fans looking to make the season a little more fun. However, I don't recommend it if you're serious about building your bankroll. For one, the Falcons schedule difficulty is top heavy so you can likely find a better number on them after they play Kanas City in Week 3. Second, this team doesn't have the star power on defense to compete with Detroit, San Francisco, or Philadelphia.
Because of the concerns on the defensive side of the ball, I think Atlanta's ceiling is winning one playoff game so I don't like them to win the conference or Super Bowl. The -145 number at FanDuel isn't a bad bet, but the time to bet Atlanta was right before the Cousins signing.
2024 Atlanta Falcons Win Total Odds
2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
9.5 | -154 | +124 | 7-10 | 5-12 | 7-10 |
Odds from FanDuel as of August 30
If you're thinking of betting the Falcons season win total, be sure to account for Atlanta's weak schedule. The Falcons are one of 12 teams in the NFL with 5+ net rest days according to sharpfootballanalysis.com and they have by far the league's easiest strength of schedule. For instance, Atlanta's final six games after their Week 12 bye are against: The Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers.
A 5-1 or 6-0 finish to the season is very realistic, so if Atlanta can make it to their bye week a game or two above .500, it will be in great shape to hit this over. Because of the soft schedule, I bet the over.
2024 Atlanta Falcons Playoff Odds
To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
-210 | +178 |
Odds from FanDuel as of August 30
The acquisitions of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons will help anchor Atlanta's defense and while there are still concerns on that side of the ball, I think there are now enough pieces in Atlanta to make the Falcons a playoff threat.
It's worth noting that Atlanta's first three games of the season are against the Steelers (who employ their old coach at OC), the Eagles (who will have extra rest), and the Chiefs. I'd be surprised if Atlanta makes it through that stretch better than 1-2, so if you like the "Yes" odds above from FanDuel, then I'd wait until after Week 3 and hope for a buy low opportunity.
2024 Atlanta Falcons NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Player | Odds |
Kirk Cousins | +430 |
Odds from FanDuel as of August 30
Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon in Week 8 last season and there are only two players with shorter odds than him in this market (Joe Burrow +230 and Aaron Rodgers +200). Cousins seems just as likely as Burrow or Rodgers to put up monster numbers, especially with Atlanta's porous defense helping to pad his stats by putting the Falcons offense in more passing situations.
What's working against Cousins here is the fact that Rodgers' injury was a little more public since it happened on Week 1 of Monday Night Football a couple snaps into his Jets' career. That said, Cousins is Mr. Nice Guy who never swears and Rodgers is considered unlikable to a certain percentage of the population. As strange as it sounds, seemingly trivial things like that matter for a market being decided by human voters.
I don't hate Cousins at +430 to win Comeback Player of the Year, but because I'm so bullish on the Jets this year, the threat of Rodgers has me staying away.
