San Francisco 49ers fans are still scarred from how last season ended, but oddsmakers think they have a good shot to make it right this year. The 49ers are at the top of the Super Bowl odds board once again and hopes are high in San Francisco.
Let's explore all the 49ers odds, key matchups, and what to expect from Kyle Shanahan's all-star roster throughout the 2024 NFL season:
2024 San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl & NFC Odds
| Super Bowl Odds | NFC Championship Odds | NFC West Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +600 | +300 | -190 |
Odds as of August 26
Fans of the 49ers are starting to get used to seeing their team atop these odds boards thanks to a roster that's loaded with talent and a coach (Kyle Shanahan) who is regarded as one of the best play callers in the NFL. Unfortunately, that coach is also known for blowing Super Bowl leads as he's done twice against the Chiefs and once against the Patriots while he was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta.
If you are considering a bet on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl or the NFC, you're better off waiting until Trent Williams return. He's unhappy with his contract and he's especially valuable because he's probably the best offensive lineman in the game and also because the 49ers don't have a lot of talent elsewhere up front.
There are concerns about a Super Bowl hangover after San Francisco lost in especially devastating fashion to the Chiefs. The 49ers have the right leaders (Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, etc.) to bounce back but much of their success this season will be tied to the health of those superstars. The 49ers have depth at some positions, but unlike past years, they're thin at other spots like safety and in the trenches.
The 49ers won't sneak up on anyone this season including the oddsmakers who have priced them right up with there with the Chiefs as one of the best teams in the league. Because injuries can derail a season quickly, I can't bet the 49ers (or any team for that matter) at these odds.
2024 San Francisco 49ers Win Total Odds
| 2024 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2023 Record SU | 2023 Record ATS | 2023 O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | +126 | -158 | 14-6 | 9-11 | 11-8-1 |
Odds as of August 26
Season win total bets are as much about a team's schedule as they are about talent. The 49ers have lots of talent, but they also have a schedule that's historically difficult. For instance, San Francisco plays four teams coming off a bye week which only two other teams since 1990 have ever had to do. Also, according to schedule guru Warren Sharp, the 49ers play eight games with a rest disadvantage and have -32 day net rest advantage, which is worst rest advantage since 1990.
The 49ers start the season with the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, and Cardinals. Over bettors will need them to get off to a good start in those winnable games because the next chapter of the season gets tough. San Francisco has back-to-back road games against the Packers and Bills in the winter as well as home games against likely playoff teams in the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Lions. The four division games against the Rams and Seahawks won't be easy either.
Because of the difficulty of their schedule, I like the under 11.5 wins (-158) a lot more than I like the over 11.5 wins (+126), but I'm not betting either.
2024 San Francisco 49ers Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -420 | +310 |
Odds as of August 26
The 49ers have made the playoffs in four of the past five seasons and nobody can question if they have the roster talent to make the playoffs again.
Barring injuries, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where San Francisco doesn't make the playoffs again, but considering the team's injury history, staying healthy is no guarantee. Christian McCaffrey was durable last season but he's 28-years old and coming off a 417 touch campaign.
Brock Purdy is only one year removed from significant rehab while other stars like Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa always seem to be among the walking wounded. Don't forget, the 49ers will start the season without the services of Drew Greenlaw who suffered a devastating injury in the Super Bowl. If someone wants to take a flier on the the 49ers to miss the playoffs at +310 and root fo the injury bug that's probably the only play here, but I'm staying away from this market.
2024 San Francisco 49ers NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | +1600 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +30000 |
Odds as of August 26
It's easy to forget that Brock Purdy was the front runner last year for NFL MVP until Christmas Day when the Ravens crushed the 49ers 33-19 and Lamar Jackson became the Grinch who stole Purdy's MVP.
The anti-Purdy MVP argument, as long as he's playing for Kyle Shanahan, is that the system he's in (and the talent around him) inflates his numbers. There's a lot of truth to that because any QB would love to play in San Francisco, but when a guy puts up 32 TDs, 4,280 yards with and 69.4% completions like last year, he's going to be in the conversation.
Furthermore, Purdy's numbers improved noticeably last year (despite coming off a serious surgery) and he's only 24-years old, so I'd expect an even better season. I personally bet Purdy at +2500 earlier this summer and love him at that number but +1600 isn't a bet I'd make at this point.
There were times last season that Christian McCaffrey was making noise in the MVP race, but since this a QB has won the award 16 of the past 17 seasons, I can't justify an MVP wager on any other 49ers player.
