How Cam Newton’s Move To New England Moved NFL Futures Markets

Just when you thought the New England Patriots were dead in the water, the franchise has signed former Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. Now, their NFL betting odds and futures have seen a massive shift for 2020.

The best football betting sites had to scramble overnight to adjust the corresponding betting lines for the Patriots, with huge moves in some of the most popular NFL futures. We’ve seen a shift in New England’s Super Bowl odds, season win totals and division odds, and even in Newton’s odds for individual accolades like Most Valuable Player and Comeback Player of the Year.

Let’s break down all the key angles so you can see, from a betting perspective, the movement that a former NFL MVP creates when he signs with a new team (like Tom Brady):

Super Bowl Futures

It’s safe to say that there wasn’t much enthusiasm for the Patriots going into 2020 and rightfully so. They had just let Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, leave for Tampa Bay and were riding with Jarrett Stidham as their QB1. Well, Cam Newton could be just the thing to kick-start New England’s anemic offense and provide a different look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to play with (more on that in the MVP section).

Moving the Patriots from 25-1 to 16-1 to win Super Bowl 55 doesn’t seem huge in the grand scheme of things but it does put them back in the upper tier of teams likely to win it all, leaving them with similar odds to teams like the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. It may be too early to tell how Cam fits in with the Patriots Way but one thing is certain, New England will certainly be in the mix to make it back to the Super Bowl for the fifth time since 2015.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

NFL MVP Odds

Just over a week ago, Cam Newton was out of work and seemingly had no place to play with starting quarterback jobs drying up across the league. His NFL MVP odds at that time were 50-1 and he had +400 odds to even sign with the New England Patriots. That narrative changed quickly with him signing with the Pats. His MVP odds have now dropped to 15-1 and anyone who took a stab on his odds clearly got incredible value on their investment even if the bet doesn’t hit.

There are considerable differences of opinion about Newton in the Patriots offense. Some football analysts think he’ll be rejuvenated in New England while others believe he has taken too many hits scrambling out of the pocket.

In no way is Cam Newton a more accurate thrower of the football than Brady but based on 2019 statistics, Cam should at least be able to match TB12’s level of production in 2019. Brady was 27th in both completion percentage and yards per attempt and didn’t offer the running option that Newton can.

It might not be great enough value at +1500 to win MVP when you have quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson still out there but barring injury, Newton should at least be in the mix to take his second career MVP Trophy.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Regular-Season Win Totals

Surprisingly, this is one of the NFL futures props that didn’t see a ton of movement and it almost seems laughable. The Patriots’ regular-season win total for 2020 only moved from 9 to 9.5, which seems like a steal. Here are the main reasons why the OVER needs to be considered:

If you still have doubts, then just look at the Patriots’ history. You can almost set your watch to the Patriots reaching double digits in wins by the end of November because that’s just what they do.

They’ve won 10 or more games every season since 2003 and even managed to put up 11 wins in 2008 with Matt Cassel as the starter and Brady missing the entire year due to a torn ACL.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

AFC East Divisional Odds

Much like regular-season win totals, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and the Patriots winning the AFC East division. The Pats are riding an 11-year streak as AFC East champions and with Newton’s signing, they immediately moved back into the favorite slot. Before he reached a deal with the Patriots, the Buffalo Bills were the divisional faves at +120 with the Pats coming back at +150.

This was supposed to be the season when the AFC East was finally going to be a wide-open race but now New England is back to being the +110 fave to win the division. If anything, this resembles the normalcy of the NFL and for any bettors who think the Newton signing will be a disaster, now is the time to jump on the Bills or any other AFC East squad that you think can usurp the Patriots dynasty.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Odds To Make Playoffs

A large contingent of football fans (myself included) anticipated the Patriots would regress without Tom Brady and finally miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. There’s still a season left to play, so anything can happen, but oddsmakers are implying the Patriots will be back in the postseason for 2020 with Cam Newton at the helm.

New England was sitting at -165 odds to make the playoffs but since Cam signed, the Pats have moved to -230. As mentioned previously, the potential of the Patriots offense is unsettled since they’ve primarily been a team built around a pocket passer but in a division that is fairly weak and with seven teams now qualifying for the postseason from each conference, we may need to wait longer for that Patriots’ regular-season regression.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

AFC Conference Odds

After making the Super Bowl in four of the last five years and routinely being at the top of the AFC Conference standings, it was understandable to see the Brady-less Patriots at +1200 to get back to the big game. Now, their odds have shrunk down to +700 to win the AFC, right behind the Chiefs and Ravens.

Even if Cam Newton’s potential impact on the Patriots offense is unclear, laying the odds at +700 before we even know what he looks like on the field is foolish. The best strategy would be to wait till after Week 4, once the Pats have faced two bad teams (Dolphins and Raiders) and two good teams (Seahawks and Chiefs), to get a better gauge on what this team looks like.

If the Patriots are 0-4, you saved yourself a bad investment and if they’re 4-0, then you tip your cap to the bettors who got +700 and wait to fade the Patriots in the playoffs.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Comeback Player of the Year

One of the larger swings for an NFL futures prop came in Comeback Player of the Year, where Newton’s odds saw a massive shift. Before he signed with New England, he was +1800 to win this award. Now he is +300 and the co-favorite with Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger.

This is a tough one for bettors because the criteria for this award is very subjective and there are a lot of good candidates on the list. For one, Roethlisberger also had a disastrous 2019 so if he balls out and tosses for 5,000 yards and the Steelers make the playoffs, he’ll be tough to beat. Then there’s Rob Gronkowski, who took 2019 off but is now joining a dynamic offense in Tampa Bay and could likely reach double-digit touchdown receptions.

Favorites for this award have been a risky bet. Even in 2019, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo opened as the +450 fave and seemed like a shoo-in at the midway point of the season but then Ryan Tannehill happened and the Titans QB got the hardware.

Odds as of June 29 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Odds To Be Patriots Starter in Week 1

There shouldn’t be much debate about this betting prop at [Sportsbook not available for your region] – there’s no way Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels bring in Cam Newton to have him sit on the bench. Newton has -145 odds to be the Week 1 starter for New England and those odds should be higher. He had +700 odds to be the Patriots starter back in April.

Newton isn’t just an NFL quarterback, he’s an offensive identity for a team – in Carolina, the Panthers’ entire offense was built around Cam’s skill set. While Jarrett Stidham must have some skill at quarterback for the coaching staff to keep him around, he has limited starter reps and it’s likely a better option to keep him fresh in a backup role for when or if Cam Newton goes down with an injury from a big hit.

Odds as of June 29 at Sportsbook